Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Housing starts surge on back of strong new home demand Housing starts bounced-back in June, and are now down only 4% y/y. A surge in housing demand to 10-year highs, and a lack of existing home inventory, has boosted new home sales and reversed all the …
17th July 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
As COVID infections have surged, the slowdown or reversal of reopening across the South will weigh on home sales. Given sellers and buyers now have more experience in transacting during the pandemic, we doubt the fall in sales in the South will match the …
14th July 2020
After a brief pause in the second half of June, record low mortgage rates helped push applications for home purchase to an 11-year high in the first week of July. That will help reverse the earlier dip in existing home sales but, with credit conditions …
9th July 2020
The average value of a home purchase mortgage application hit a record high $359,000 at the end of June. But that doesn’t mean house price growth is set to take-off. An increase in the share of new home sales, tighter credit conditions and perhaps …
6th July 2020
The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the risk of a spike in the vacancy rate. However, …
1st July 2020
Home purchase demand flattens out as country reopens Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over the last two weeks of June, even as mortgage rates fell to record lows. The pent-up demand from the spring buying season now looks to have …
House price growth accelerates, but slow down on the way The further acceleration in annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure in April reflected the strength of the housing market at the start of the year, when the impact of the coronavirus …
30th June 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
Slower house price growth but no slump on the horizon Following a gain of 0.1% m/m in March, the modest 0.2% m/m rise house prices in April shows a marked weakening in house price growth. It is too soon to tell how much of an impact the coronavirus has …
24th June 2020
New home sales benefit from reopening New home sales reversed most of their coronavirus related decline in May, helped by the gradual reopening of the country. A healthy level of inventory means new sales are well-placed to take advantage of the recent …
23rd June 2020
Existing home sales bottom-out Existing home sales saw another substantial decline in May but with the country reopening, and housing demand surging on the back of record low mortgage interest rates, we suspect they have now bottomed out. That said, …
22nd June 2020
A drop in house price expectations has helped boost demand from some looking to pick up a bargain, but it has also encouraged sellers to delay listing until the price outlook improves. Indeed, selling sentiment has seen a larger drop compared to buying …
18th June 2020
Strong housing demand boosts single-family building permits Single-family housing starts were unchanged in May but, helped by strong housing demand, building permits posted their largest month-on-month gain in 30 years. With more of the country opening …
17th June 2020
The factors that drove the resurgence in home purchase mortgage demand, including record low mortgage rates, the need for more space and the anticipation of finding a bargain, will not give a similar boost to apartment rental demand. Low interest rates …
11th June 2020
By the end of May, mortgage applications for home purchase had fully reversed their earlier drop. (See Chart 1.) New home sales have also performed better than expected, with a surprise month-on-month rise in April. However, with credit conditions …
9th June 2020
Record low mortgage rates, plenty of spare time, the need for more space, increased savings and the anticipation of picking up a cut-price home all help explain the surprise recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. But tighter credit …
4th June 2020
Home purchase demand continues to surge Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in each of the past seven weeks, and in May were up 2.7% y/y. With the unemployment rate at a record high, that strength in demand is surprising. Record low …
3rd June 2020
An incentive to sell to support cash-flow, relatively affluent buyers and a streamlined selling process help explain why new home sales increased in April even as the unemployment rate hit a record high. Without those benefits, existing home sales will …
28th May 2020
New home sales show surprise increase in April New home sales edged higher in April, after recording their largest month-on-month slump in over six years during March. The latest rise was in line with recent improvements in mortgage applications, but …
26th May 2020
Existing home sales drop to nine-year low Existing home sales saw another sharp drop in April, as the shutdown of large parts of the country disrupted housing market activity. Despite a strong recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase, we doubt …
21st May 2020
In April, single-family housing starts saw their largest month-on-month drop since records began in 1970. However, we are relatively optimistic that starts will recover as more builders are able to return to work. Admittedly, homebuilder confidence is …
20th May 2020
Record fall in single-family housing starts The shutdown of large parts of the country meant single-family housing starts recorded their largest month-on-month fall on record in April. In the Northeast starts were down over 70% compared to February. But …
19th May 2020
Consumers now expect house prices to fall 2% over the next 12-months, the first negative reading since 2011. That will cut the amount buyers are willing to pay and, alongside a drop in rents, supports our below-consensus call for annual house price growth …
14th May 2020
The impact of the coronavirus is showing up in housing market activity. Pending home sales plummeted 21% m/m in March, which points to existing home sales falling to just over 4m annualised in April. (See Chart 1.) We expect they will eventually bottom …
12th May 2020
The surge in mortgage borrowers seeking forbearance stands in contrast to a more modest rise in missed rental payments and suggests many have requested mortgage holidays as an insurance policy, rather than because of a pressing need. Accordingly, while …
7th May 2020
Surprise recovery in home purchase demand Mortgage applications for home purchase were down overall in April, but saw a decent recovery over the second half of the month. Record low mortgage rates will have supported demand to some extent, but we also …
6th May 2020
Strong new home sales in 2019 helped the under-35 homeownership rate jump to a nine-year high in the first quarter. But, with the disruption from COVID set to cut home sales in half in the second quarter, that impressive performance will come to a halt. …
30th April 2020
Uptake of home equity lines of credit surged during the financial crisis, as households made use of existing facilities to replace lost income. But, even as the unemployment rate reaches a record high, we doubt a similar increase will occur today. …
29th April 2020
Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if lockdowns hamper property sales, and if demand rebounds later …
Annual house price growth accelerates prior to COVID Low inventory and mortgage rates helped house price growth accelerate over the turn of the year. But the sharp drop in housing demand caused by the coronavirus means prices are set for a modest fall …
28th April 2020
Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to usual. That demonstrates tenants are still incentivised …
24th April 2020
New home sales see largest month-on-month drop in six years The impact of the coronavirus on the housing market was made clear in March new home sales, which saw the largest month-on-month fall in over six years. Subdued mortgage applications point to a …
23rd April 2020
Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since …
21st April 2020
Drop in existing home sales only the start of collapse in activity Existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in 4½-years in March, but given sales are recorded with a time lag that only represents the start of the fall in activity. …
The largest fall in new home buyer traffic on record in April supports our below-consensus call for a 50% q/q drop in new home sales in the second quarter. But the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home saw only a modest decline in …
17th April 2020
Coronavirus disruption leads to sharp fall in housing starts Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded large declines in March, as the coronavirus cut housing demand and disrupted the ability of homebuilders to work. Single-family starts will …
16th April 2020
The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an annual basis single-family REIT prices are down by only 2%, …
9th April 2020
The coronavirus will cause a severe contraction in housing market activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase have already seen a 33% drop from their peak in late January. (See Chart 1.) A surge in unemployment to record highs, and restrictions on …
7th April 2020
Single-family housing starts were in a strong position prior to the arrival of the coronavirus and builders would, in normal circumstances, look through what is anticipated to be a temporary dip in demand. But disruption to supply chains and the …
2nd April 2020
Home purchase demand to halve Distress in the MBS market meant mortgage rates were volatile over March, but they started and ended the month at a record low of 3.47%. While that has helped refinance demand, applications for home purchase have collapsed as …
1st April 2020
The collapse in home sales, and hit to households’ income and savings, means house prices will fall back. But lender forbearance and the fiscal package will prevent a surge in forced sellers, and with lending standards much tighter a repeat of the …
27th March 2020
A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate under 7%. Moreover, given the temporary nature of the …
25th March 2020
New home sales face coronavirus shock from a strong position New home sales edged back from a 13-year high in February, but are now set for a sharp downturn as the coronavirus shuts down many parts of the home buying process. However, the high level of …
24th March 2020
Existing home sales set for 35% drop Existing home sales saw a strong gain of 6.5% m/m in February, but with the whole of California being locked down the risks are building to our initial view that sales will see a 35% drop in the second quarter. …
20th March 2020
Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of 2019. But the dip should prove short-lived. Assuming a …
19th March 2020
Rise in single-family housing starts pre-dates virus impact The rise in single-family housing starts in February pre-dates the outbreak of the coronavirus, and the outlook for starts has worsened considerably over the next few months. It will take time …
18th March 2020
The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender caution and capacity constraints, with enforced home …
17th March 2020
Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the magnitude of the shock. Given they can be carried out from the …
12th March 2020
With growing evidence that the coronavirus is turning into a pandemic, a hit to housing market activity is inevitable. No hard numbers have been released yet, but home sales are vulnerable to any disruption the virus will cause. Delaying a major purchase …
10th March 2020
