Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
While there are huge uncertainties ahead, the UK economy has entered the formal countdown to Brexit with decent momentum. Against this background, we see no reason to alter our long-standing view that Brexit will prove to be rather be less damaging than …
10th April 2017
Annual house price growth on the Halifax index slowed as prices held flat for the second month running. And, with real wage growth squeezed and demand growth paused, we think house price inflation will cool to 2% by the end of the year. … Halifax House …
7th April 2017
Activity growth took a breather in February while house price inflation continued to slow. And, with real wage growth slowing to a standstill and demand growth stalled, that pattern looks set to continue in the coming months. In all, we expect annual …
5th April 2017
House price inflation cooled in March, a trend that we expect to continue. However, with the economic and interest rate backdrop supportive, the immediate risks of a house price correction seem low. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st March 2017
Mortgage approvals fell in February, the first month-on-month fall since August. With a sharp rise buy-to-let unlikely and buyer demand growth paused, we expect only modest growth in mortgage approvals across the rest of 2017. … Mortgage Lending …
29th March 2017
The recovery in mortgage approvals stalled in February. Looking ahead, while we expect lending to rise in 2017, a sluggish outlook for buy-to-let, combined with subdued levels of buyer interest, suggests that those gains will be modest. … BBA Mortgage …
24th March 2017
Despite some very strong readings from the official index, there is little evidence elsewhere to suggest that the price of newbuild homes has surged. Rather, the strong data likely reflect a timing issue that, in time, will likely be revised away. But in …
23rd March 2017
House price growth accelerated in January according to the official index. But recent revisions to the index have all been downwards, suggesting that today’s data should be interpreted with care. … UK House Price Index …
21st March 2017
Rental growth in London has been weighed down by deteriorating affordability and falling tenant demand. With real wage growth now cooling and the risks to London tenant demand on the downside, we think rental growth will grind to a halt over the remainder …
15th March 2017
Today’s MLAR data confirmed a weak end to 2016 for buy-to-let lending, while data from the CML points to this persisting through to January. That weakness, combined with continued caution from lenders, suggests that mortgage lending will make only modest …
14th March 2017
The recovery in mortgage approvals and transactions saw steady progress in January. But with surveys implying that the recovery in buyer enquiries has stalled, that recovery may not persist for long. Regardless, with prices already very high and real …
10th March 2017
Today’s survey suggests that the recovery in housing market demand has petered out. Looking ahead, with prices already very high and real wage growth slowing, a resurgence in price growth is looking increasingly unlikely. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
9th March 2017
House price growth on the Halifax index is once again cooling. And while activity seems to have picked up, the dip in real earnings growth and already high prices will keep house price inflation on a downward trajectory. … Halifax House Prices …
7th March 2017
London’s housing market has shown few signs of a revival over the past quarter. Transactions have dropped sharply and house price growth is on a downward trajectory. That said, with the economic backdrop holding up for now, the slowdown is unlikely to …
2nd March 2017
Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the fifth consecutive month in January. But they are still lower than this time last year, and with house price inflation holding broadly steady at 4.5% in February, there are few signs of building house …
1st March 2017
Mortgage approvals picked up at the start of 2017, supported by record low interest rates and a solid economic backdrop. But continued weakness in buy-to-let lending will temper the recovery across the rest of this year. … BBA Mortgage Lending …
24th February 2017
Healthy levels of consumer confidence and steady economic growth encouraged housebuilders to ramp up production in Q4. And while we don’t think that pace of growth will be sustained, the outlook for starts is looking increasingly positive. … Housebuilding …
23rd February 2017
In theory, an increase in downsizing could improve housing market liquidity. But it would do nothing to fix excessively high house prices, nor would it boost the overall supply of housing. … Downsizing is not the answer to the housing market’s …
22nd February 2017
Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past standards should ensure that spending does not slow too …
14th February 2017
Weak demand from home-movers and prospective BTL landlords continued to drag on mortgage lending towards the end of last year. As a result, lending volumes recorded their weakest Q4 performance since 2012. … CML Lending Trends (2016 …
House price growth on the official index accelerated in December, driven in part by a surprisingly strong set of figures for the North of England. But with house prices high across the country, this won’t mark the start of a wider trend. … UK House Price …
With house price growth cooling and buyer enquiries slowing, the housing market saw a fairly tepid start to 2017. Looking ahead, with prices already so high and mortgage regulations increasingly biting – especially in the capital and surrounding regions – …
9th February 2017
January’s RICS survey reported that the number of homes coming onto the market fell again. But while the shortage of homes for sale will keep competition amongst buyers high, house prices are already very stretched, meaning that those competitive forces …
The Halifax report that house prices fell in January, partially unwinding a strong run in the final quarter of 2016. The data, therefore, echoed the message from last week’s Nationwide data that house price growth slowed at the start of the year. … …
7th February 2017
Our economic forecasts point to a supportive backdrop for the housing market in 2017. Nevertheless, there are three potential risks facing the market. These are an interest rate shock, a shift in the behaviour of investors and a London-led correction. On …
3rd February 2017
House price growth continued its downward trend at the start of the year. We expect this to continue during 2017, as buyers become increasingly constrained by the very high level of prices. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st February 2017
While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have anticipated. Admittedly, higher inflation and Brexit uncertainty …
31st January 2017
The growth of lending for house purchase has cooled somewhat over the last couple of months. The breakdown of the data suggest that is primarily due to lower lending to BTL investors. … Mortgage Lending …
While the housing market ended 2016 in reasonable shape, house price growth has been losing steam. With prices already so high, we expect that trend to continue, with annual house price growth ending both 2017 and 2018 at 2%. Furthermore, while we expect …
30th January 2017
Stagnating employment growth combined with relatively loose supply conditions appear to be keeping Scottish house price growth in check. Throw in low oil prices and concerns about the impact of Brexit on the financial services sector, and house price …
27th January 2017
Today’s figures from the BBA confirm that the recovery in house purchase mortgage approvals maintained its momentum through to the end of 2017. With the economy looking resilient and confidence in the market continuing to improve, we expect this recovery …
26th January 2017
Despite a slight improvement in the data, stock levels remain near historic lows and look unlikely to recover soon. But given that house prices are already very high, neither the shortage of stock nor improving house price expectations will be enough to …
19th January 2017
While the UK house price index recorded a slight rise in annual house price growth in November, recent revisions to the data have brought the index more in line with other measures. This reinforces the view that house price growth has slowed markedly in …
17th January 2017
The supply of residential mortgage credit worsened a touch in the fourth quarter. But there was no sign of a drop in lenders’ risk appetite or market share objectives, suggesting that credit availability will not continue to worsen in 2017. … Bank of …
13th January 2017
The Halifax report that house prices finished 2016 strongly. In spite of that, the big picture remains that house price growth is significantly weaker than it has been over recent years. … Halifax House Prices …
9th January 2017
The housing market is shaping up for a subdued year in 2017. If we are right that the economy will continue to surprise on the upside, lending and sales should make further modest gains this year. But given the already high level of house prices, house …
5th January 2017
The revival in mortgage lending for house purchase seen since August appeared to lose much of its momentum in November. But the feared economic slowdown has yet to materialise and housing surveys suggest that November’s pause should prove only temporary. …
4th January 2017
Mortgage affordability tests introduced in 2014 have effectively eliminated loans with loan-to-income multiples of 5 times or higher. As interest rates begin to normalise, affordability tests will put further downward pressure on the maximum size of …
19th December 2016
Data from the official house price index show that house price growth cooled in October. And while data from the Bank of England suggests that borrower leverage rose in Q3, that is happening within the confines of tighter regulation. … UK House Price …
13th December 2016
With buyer numbers growing, the number of homes coming onto the market falling, and the stock of homes for sale at a record low, sellers have the upper hand. But with house prices so high and some buyers still put off by Brexit uncertainty, house prices …
8th December 2016
This morning’s figures do nothing alter the picture of an acute shortage of willing sellers. But with house prices already so high and price expectations down compared to the early part of the year, that will not translate into a marked acceleration in …
The headline annual rate of house price growth picked up in November. That said the underlying picture still shows a cooling market. With house prices very high and some buyers still cautious following the Brexit vote, we expect the slowdown to be …
7th December 2016
House prices held broadly steady for a second consecutive month in November. With house prices already so high, and house price sentiment still a little short of pre-referendum levels, a pick-up in house price growth looks unlikely. … Nationwide House …
1st December 2016
House price growth in London has held up reasonably well in the aftermath of the EU referendum. But the bigger picture is that the capital is in the midst of an internal adjustment. Outer London has been playing catch-up with the centre – dominating in …
30th November 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the second month in a row, suggesting that mortgage lending is back on an upward trend. But with homes for sale still in short supply, the pace of recovery will be modest. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2016
Interest rates are an important driver of housing demand, but they are not the only factor. And restricted access to mortgage credit, rather than its cost, is currently actin as the biggest drag on housing market activity. Thus, even though demand …
28th November 2016
Housing starts posted a healthy increase in Q3, despite the Brexit vote tempering house price expectations and confidence early in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect housebuilding to grow further, albeit gradually, with the measures announced in …
24th November 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in October to regain their pre-referendum level. That said, they are still short of the levels seen last year in advance of the announcement of the introduction of the …
The introduction of the buy-to-let stress test should have little near-term impact. But in the longer term, the effect of the test on mortgage volumes will be amplified by the removal of mortgage interest tax relief. As a result, unless gross yields start …
18th November 2016
Subdued demand from prospective buy-to-let (BTL) landlords and home movers was behind the continued weakness in mortgage activity in Q3, while buoyant activity among first time buyers (FTBs) partially offset the slowdown. … CML Lending Trends (2016 …
15th November 2016
