Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year suggests demand will continue to pick up and housing …
10th September 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Modest housing market recovery continues The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in August supports our view that the fall in the Nationwide house …
6th September 2024
Construction activity continues to expand The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, the decline was driven by the volatile civil engineering …
5th September 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Steady improvement in credit is supporting the economy July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is …
30th August 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lower mortgage rates may soon help house prices regain momentum Despite the recent declines in mortgage rates, the small fall in the Nationwide house price index in August …
The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected. As a result, we now think house prices will grow by 2.0% y/y in Q4 2024 (1.0% previously). What’s more, our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.00% now to …
15th August 2024
Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions per year will increase from 1.02m in 2023 to 1.07m in …
Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut mortgage rates, further cuts in Bank Rate than financial …
8th August 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Falling mortgage rates boost house prices After three months of stagnation, the bigger-than-expected rise in the Halifax house price index in July provides further evidence that …
7th August 2024
Construction activity rebounds, helped by housing The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded in July, more than reversing the small fall in June to reach 55.3, the highest reading since May 2022. That rise was driven by the housing component, with the …
6th August 2024
Mortgage rate reductions could help prices gain more momentum The third consecutive small monthly rise in house prices in July was a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests house prices are shrugging off the slight rise in mortgage rates in the …
1st August 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More evidence the drag on activity from higher interest rates is starting to fade June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is …
29th July 2024
Overview – House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than investors anticipate suggests …
22nd July 2024
Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the market will disappoint those expectations in the near …
11th July 2024
House prices slip back in Q2 As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we expect house prices to …
5th July 2024
The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the latter falling back below 50, indicating some contraction …
4th July 2024
The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said, given the incoming government’s commitment to creating a …
3rd July 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from higher interest rates is fading May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is …
1st July 2024
House prices flat in Q2 Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think that house prices will flatline at …
The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased. This combination of softening demand and more ample supply …
27th June 2024
Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for the last 30 years. While some moderation in buy-to-let …
25th June 2024
Overview – The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4 th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth than most are expecting. We think that a …
Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the market increasing at the same time, prices are likely …
13th June 2024
The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t think it signals a further improvement in activity to …
11th June 2024
Confirmation house prices are stagnant The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to edge up, so …
7th June 2024
Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on tracker and two-year fixed rate deals will soon see their …
6th June 2024
Construction activity picks up in both housing and commercial sectors The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households …
31st May 2024
Persistently high mortgage rates cause prices to stagnate Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate. The …
The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be eventually be cut further than expected suggests …
29th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the UK housing market. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or …
At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. The slides from the event are available on our website . Across the …
17th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a guide to tenant affordability as it used to be. Our …
13th May 2024
Increasing supply points to softer price growth While sales volumes were robust in April according to the RICS Residential Market Survey, stalling demand and increasing supply suggests that prices will continue to stagnate over the coming months. The …
9th May 2024
Commercial activity rebounds, but housing still subdued The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to 53.0 in April, a 14-month high. The rise was driven by improvements to the commercial and civil engineering components, …
7th May 2024
Higher mortgage rates continue to hit prices The second consecutive decline in the Nationwide house price index in April confirms that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year will prevent further near-term price gains. But as we think Bank …
1st May 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from high interest rates is fading March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is …
30th April 2024
House price growth in London remains negative according to the ONS, but timelier measures of house prices and sentiment suggest that activity has picked up and prices are regaining momentum. The recent slight increase in mortgage rates may temper the …
25th April 2024
New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily returns exceeded that of all property. But with overall …
22nd April 2024
Residential has taken an increasing share of the professional investment universe over the last decade or more and we will be adding the sector to our next set of UK commercial property forecasts. Our in-depth analysis indicates residential’s recent …
11th April 2024
Cautious optimism from surveyors on prices and activity The slight increase in the balances for past prices and new buyer enquiries in the RICS Residential Market Survey for March showed that demand remained robust, as mortgage rates stabilised after …
The further slump in housing starts in Q4 was a surprise, but timelier data and leading indicators suggest activity has since begun to recover. We are therefore happy with our forecast of a gradual recovery in new home supply over the next two years. (See …
5th April 2024
Construction PMIs edge closer to expansionary territory The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 50.2 in February, the first time it has risen above the no change level since August last year. The rise was driven by small improvements across the …
Rebound in mortgage rates causes prices to stall The first decline in the Halifax House price Index in six months confirmed that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. The 1.0% m/m fall in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals …
2nd April 2024
Rising mortgage rates cause house prices to stall The 0.2% m/m fall in the Nationwide house price index in March (consensus: +0.3%, CE: +0.2%) suggested that the rise in mortgage rates since the turn of the year has caused house prices to stall. That …
A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further than expected suggests that further reductions in …
26th March 2024
Overview – After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI inflation will fall from 3.4% in February to below …
25th March 2024
Overview – A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the end of 2025, suggests that further …
15th March 2024
