Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
According to the Halifax index, house prices saw a fairly strong rise in May. Even so, the latest rise only partially reversed the large drop seen last month. As a result, house price inflation edged down below 2%. And looking ahead, with prices in London …
7th June 2018
Abstracting from the effects of the snow in Q1, the big picture remains one of very feeble consumer spending. But things are starting to look up. CPI inflation now appears to be on a firm downward trajectory. And there have been clearer signs of a revival …
4th June 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase weakened again in April, while house prices edged down in May. But with real incomes growing once more and Q1’s weak GDP growth unlikely to be repeated, activity in the housing market may soon stabilise. … Mortgage …
31st May 2018
Landlords are trimming their portfolios, reducing the number of privately rented homes in the dwelling stock for the first time in 18 years. For now, there are few signs that these additional sellers will trigger a collapse in house prices. But the risks …
25th May 2018
March’s dip in house purchase approvals was reversed in April, suggesting that a renewed slide in lending is not underway. That’s said, with buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales still softening, mortgage approvals will likely stay muted until the end of …
UK house prices are still growing, albeit at a subdued pace. But prices in London are falling, while rental growth there has also paused. Looking ahead, we expect price growth across the country to slow further, in large part because we think price falls …
23rd May 2018
Transactions fell sharply in March. But that was probably down to a combination of weak activity from the end of last year, as well as the recent bout of extreme weather. As a result, we think the fall in transactions is probably close to bottoming out. … …
17th May 2018
Q1’s weakness in mortgage advances was driven primarily by the buy-to-let sector. With changes to mortgage interest tax relief and rising interest rates set to erode landlords’ returns, the prospect of a recovery in BTL activity is looking increasingly …
16th May 2018
The housing market slowed further in March – mortgage approvals slipped, transactions took a surprisingly large tumble and house price growth was lacklustre. April’s data from the RICS implied that the pace of decline in activity may have eased a touch. …
11th May 2018
The MPC held off from raising Bank Rate in May, suggesting that the next rise in mortgage rates may also have been deferred. But interest rates remain on an upward trajectory, suggesting that today’s decision will do nothing to reanimate the housing …
10th May 2018
Data from the RICS suggest that the decline in housing market activity eased off in April. But there is little reason to believe that either transactions or house price pressures will soon recover. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
According to the Halifax index, house prices fell sharply in April, more than reversing March’s gain. And with buyer demand and housing market activity falling, we expect house price inflation to edge downwards over the remainder of the year. … Halifax …
8th May 2018
The shortage of willing buyers is most evident at the top end of London’s housing market. So in 2018, we expect house price falls to be concentrated in the more expensive central London boroughs. In 2019, however, price falls are likely to spread to outer …
4th May 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals fell again in March. And there are few reasons to expect a meaningful recovery in mortgage activity over the remainder of the year. … Mortgage Lending …
1st May 2018
UK house price inflation edged up in April. But with buyer demand falling and house prices very high, there is little prospect of a sustained acceleration in house price growth. Indeed, with London prices likely to see a modest fall this year, we think UK …
27th April 2018
Mortgage lending fell in March, extending February’s drop in activity. With house prices very high and interest rates now rising, there are few reasons to expect a meaningful recovery in lending this year. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
26th April 2018
With interest rates continuing to normalise, mortgage rates will reach 3.6% by 2020. Combined with the fact that prices are already very high, that will offset the effect of accelerating wage growth, and keep house price inflation below 2% each year to …
20th April 2018
We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to regain some momentum, while we think investment will …
19th April 2018
UK house price inflation cooled in February. And, for the first time since September 2009, the official index recorded prices in London falling on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices already very high and further rate hikes to come, we …
18th April 2018
The Bank of England’s survey of lenders suggests that the recent weakness in mortgage lending has been driven by falling demand for credit. But the survey also points to a sharp fall in loan approval rates, as well as tightening credit standards. … Bank …
12th April 2018
March’s RICS survey points to a weakening housing market. With interest rates on an upward trajectory and house prices already very high, a meaningful recovery in either activity or prices is looking increasingly unlikely this year. … RICS Residential …
According to the Halifax index, house prices were broadly flat over the last quarter. And with housing market activity falling and prices still very high, we think price growth will stay sluggish over the remainder of the year. … Halifax House Prices …
9th April 2018
With mortgage approvals falling and house price growth sluggish, there are no signs of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, leading indicators suggest that transactions could weaken over the coming months. And with prices already very high, an …
5th April 2018
House price inflation held broadly steady at around 2% in March. But February’s lending data suggest that banks are struggling to maintain mortgage volumes. With house prices still very high and few reasons to expect a recovery in buyer demand, we think …
29th March 2018
The gap between the number of homes granted planning permission and actual housing starts is growing. But it is labour and materials shortages, as well as a deteriorating housing market backdrop, that are holding back further growth in construction. … …
28th March 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals saw a sizeable fall in February. What’s more, near term indicators point to further weakness over the next few months. But with the economic backdrop supportive and the squeeze on real incomes set to subside, lending is …
26th March 2018
Housing starts bounced back in Q4, rising by 5.2% q/q. That seems consistent with reports that demand for newbuild homes is rising. Yet the wider housing market still looks fragile and builders are constrained by labour and materials shortages. On …
22nd March 2018
According to the Official UK House Price Index, house price pressures continued to ease in the early stages of the year. As a result, the data confirmed the picture already painted by the more timely indices such as the Nationwide and Halifax. In turn, …
20th March 2018
Conditions in London’s housing market are deteriorating – buyer demand is weakening, rents are falling and housing transactions continue to soften. With prices very high and signs that landlords in the capital are increasingly seeking to trim their …
15th March 2018
While still true at the national level, London can no longer be characterised as a sellers’ market. An apparent shift in attitudes among sellers, combined with lower buyer numbers has sharply altered the balance of power. Experience suggests that this …
13th March 2018
The housing market slowdown intensified in February. And with interest rates now starting to rise, price growth and transactions are unlikely to see meaningful gains over the remainder of the year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
8th March 2018
Following dip in the wake of November’s interest rate rise, transactions and mortgage approvals bounced back in January. However, buyer enquiries fell and house price expectations were subdued. As a result, the underlying picture – of a stagnant or gently …
7th March 2018
The Halifax’s headline rate of annual house price growth slipped to below 2% in February. And with house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates now starting to rise, house price inflation is likely to stay close to current rates over the …
While household spending growth slowed markedly in 2017, the outlook for 2018 and beyond looks brighter. Indeed, the worst of the real pay squeeze appears to have passed. Following a peak of 3.1% in November 2017, CPI inflation has started to fall back …
1st March 2018
Mortgage approvals bounced back in January, reversing the drop in activity seen in the immediate aftermath of November’s rate hike. But with the Nationwide measure of house price inflation at a six month low in February, the lending data do not signal any …
January’s surge in mortgage approvals is not the sign of the market springing back to life, but simply a reversal of the distortions caused by November’s rate hike. The outlook for lending this year is therefore still subdued. … UK Finance Mortgage …
26th February 2018
The Term Funding Scheme did little to lower mortgage pricing, and its withdrawal could pass with little discernible effect. But by boosting lenders’ marginal funding costs, the end of the TFS does raise the upside risks around our forecasts for mortgage …
23rd February 2018
November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a stronger response. Indeed, we expect mortgage rates to top …
21st February 2018
Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is starting to respond. But given the softening in demand …
15th February 2018
Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid strong global growth and low interest rates, net trade and …
13th February 2018
House price growth was slow and steady last year, with London seeing the most notable slowdown. With prices in the capital so high, we think London will continue to underperform. … UK House Price Index …
Housing market activity weakened in January, as high house prices continued to depress buyer demand. Indeed, with newly agreed sales still falling, buyers and sellers appear to be in a stand-off – with neither side willing to accept the others’ terms of …
8th February 2018
2017 ended with no sign of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, coming on top of already high prices and subdued house price expectations, the rate hike led to a sharp dip in mortgage approvals. That is consistent with our view that a revival in house …
7th February 2018
House price inflation cooled to 2.2% on the Halifax index. And with interest rates starting to rise and real wages still falling, we think house price growth will hold at this level throughout 2018. … Halifax House Prices …
The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous than it needs to be. … Why is the newbuild premium …
2nd February 2018
The Nationwide measure of house price inflation edged up to 3.2% in January. But with prices high and the activity data weakening, there are few reasons to expect accelerating house price growth in 2018. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st February 2018
The price gains of recent years have left housing looking expensive and commercial property looking fully-valued. The good news is that interest rate rises on the scale that we anticipate are unlikely to be enough to push either market into a major …
31st January 2018
Mortgage approvals slumped in December, supporting our view that the sharp easing in house price pressures seen over the last year is here to stay. … Mortgage Lending …
30th January 2018
Both remortgaging and house purchase lending fell sharply in December, marking a downbeat end to 2017. But there is little evidence to suggest these falls are the start of a sharp downward trend. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
25th January 2018
Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be desired. … Has the official HPI been …
22nd January 2018
