Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Two developments in borrower and lending behaviour mean that housing activity and prices can be higher than before the pandemic for any given mortgage rate. That’s why we expect housing transactions to recover to their pre-pandemic levels and house prices …
18th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
Soft housing rebound While May’s RICS survey suggests the worst of the housing market’s recent weakness is in the rear view mirror, it points to only a modest recovery. Unless there is a more significant rebound in demand in the next few months, house …
12th June 2025
Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer outlook for the UK economy. This lends support to our …
29th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
Housing market left with no momentum The housing market should pull out of its current funk in the coming months even if the Bank of England were to suggest later today that interest rates won’t fall as fast as the financial markets expect. Meanwhile, a …
8th May 2025
Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers have offered bulk discounts in the face of waning home …
7th May 2025
While the big easing in market rents inflation over the past few years suggests falls in all-tenancy rents inflation are in the offing, both measures of rents inflation will probably stay above pre-pandemic rates. At its heart, rental price inflation is …
15th April 2025
Housing activity set to slow in the near term March’s RICS survey suggests both the weak domestic economy and the headwinds from the global tariff storm continue to increase the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices. But the …
10th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only slowly. Fundamentally, changes in rental demand are …
13th March 2025
Weak economy finally taking its toll on housing demand February’s RICS survey suggests the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices from the weak economy continue to grow. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than most expect over …
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
A weaker economy than we previously thought could mean housing demand is a bit more subdued than we expect. But our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests transactions will continue to recover and house prices can …
17th February 2025
Higher mortgage rates and weak activity starting to weigh on housing demand January’s RICS survey suggests that the recent rises in mortgage rates and the downbeat economic outlook weighed on housing demand at the start of this year. But bigger falls in …
13th February 2025
While it is possible that a fall in mortgage rates will trigger a modest increase in the number of rental properties over the next two years, we doubt this will offset the weakness in rental supply over the past decade. Our forecast is for tight supply to …
11th February 2025
This is the first in a series of pieces that revisit our pandemic-era forecasts about the future of global real estate markets and cities and explore how they will evolve in the coming years. This dedicated page highlights key analysis from our earlier …
5th February 2025
Recovery in mortgage lending will pause in Q2 Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected inflation in …
1st February 2025
Higher mortgage rates appear to be weighing on housing demand December’s RICS survey suggests that the relief rally after the Budget may have started to fade at the end of last year and the recent rise in mortgage rates have finally began to weigh on …
16th January 2025
With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK macro and housing market outlook. (See a recording here …
9th January 2025
The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) November house price data release indicates unusually large increases in new build house prices in recent months. We suspect that this reported rise does not reflect genuine trends in the current market. In fact, …
12th December 2024
Housing market resilient to higher mortgage rates November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall again …
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
29th November 2024
Even if the government’s easing of planning rules were to mean that at least 300,000 new home approvals in England were granted a year, the number of construction workers would need to rise significantly. We estimate about 500,000 extra construction …
26th November 2024
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates will fall by more than most expect and that house price …
14th November 2024
Improvement in housing market sentiment may be overdone October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next …
The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside risk to our forecast for house price growth of 5.0% next …
31st October 2024
The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession. Despite the fall in the average quoted mortgage …
10th October 2024
Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject to higher capital gains tax after the Budget, may …
By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed legislation. That said, an apparent ‘win-win’ ability for …
13th September 2024
Rising demand points to faster house price growth August’s RICS survey provided further evidence that housing demand is picking up in response to the recent falls in mortgage rates. What’s more, our view that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than …
12th September 2024
Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year suggests demand will continue to pick up and housing …
10th September 2024
Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions per year will increase from 1.02m in 2023 to 1.07m in …
15th August 2024
Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut mortgage rates, further cuts in Bank Rate than financial …
8th August 2024
Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the market will disappoint those expectations in the near …
11th July 2024
The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said, given the incoming government’s commitment to creating a …
3rd July 2024
The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased. This combination of softening demand and more ample supply …
27th June 2024
Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for the last 30 years. While some moderation in buy-to-let …
25th June 2024
Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the market increasing at the same time, prices are likely …
13th June 2024
The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t think it signals a further improvement in activity to …
11th June 2024
At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. The slides from the event are available on our website . Across the …
17th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a guide to tenant affordability as it used to be. Our …
13th May 2024
Increasing supply points to softer price growth While sales volumes were robust in April according to the RICS Residential Market Survey, stalling demand and increasing supply suggests that prices will continue to stagnate over the coming months. The …
9th May 2024
New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily returns exceeded that of all property. But with overall …
22nd April 2024
Cautious optimism from surveyors on prices and activity The slight increase in the balances for past prices and new buyer enquiries in the RICS Residential Market Survey for March showed that demand remained robust, as mortgage rates stabilised after …
11th April 2024
The further slump in housing starts in Q4 was a surprise, but timelier data and leading indicators suggest activity has since begun to recover. We are therefore happy with our forecast of a gradual recovery in new home supply over the next two years. (See …
5th April 2024
