Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
The Deputy Prime Minister has urged the Chancellor to close the commercial property stamp duty ‘loophole’, which could lead to an average increase in tax on property transactions of 2.0 to 2.5%-pts. If well signposted, that is likely to lead to a surge in …
13th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
After a lean couple of years, the outlook for commercial property construction is brightening. While the economic outlook is fairly weak, vacancy rates in some subsectors such as prime offices and residential are low which will support rental growth. …
6th June 2025
There were few major changes in the May IPF Consensus Survey despite increased economic uncertainty. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be around 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, which leaves our forecast of 7.5% p.a. toward the bottom end of …
29th May 2025
European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were especially strong in the Netherlands, but going forward we …
27th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers have offered bulk discounts in the face of waning home …
7th May 2025
The UK economy is relatively well insulated from the rise in US tariffs, and property even more so. Indeed, while the overall direct impact is likely to be small, some commercial sectors may even see a benefit, such as student accommodation. That said, …
29th April 2025
The Q1 RICS survey showed little change from the previous quarter, with surveyors pointing to subdued levels of occupier demand and elevated availability. That points to a slowdown in rental growth this year, with only alternatives such as data centres …
25th April 2025
The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with other stakeholders and re-shape those environments to …
22nd April 2025
With the exception of some industrial assets, commercial property in the UK is not directly impacted by the higher tariffs announced by President Trump and property equities have performed relatively well. Nevertheless, a 5% fall in property equity prices …
9th April 2025
Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the pandemic’s …
8th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a more even retail performance with the worst-hit …
26th March 2025
Despite numerous reports of firms rowing back on remote work, the evidence in the UK, US and the EU suggests that the share of jobs being done remotely has remained constant over the past couple of years. Admittedly, that may reflect relatively tight …
20th March 2025
The sharp drop in retail rents seen during the pandemic coincided with a surge in rents for distribution warehouses and, as a result, the difference between the two is at a record low. That will help physical retail stores compete with online and …
10th March 2025
The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, with views ranging from a high of 9.3% p.a. and low of 7.1% p.a. That puts our …
7th March 2025
Five years ago, we were downbeat about the immediate prospects for the largest city real estate markets, the so-called gateways, and that view has proved correct. But we also argued that this malaise would be short lived and strong fundamentals would be …
5th March 2025
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Industrial property has been a clear winner over the past five years, with double-digit annual rental growth far outpacing expectations. However, as we predicted early on, supply has been responsive and, combined with a normalisation in demand, those …
25th February 2025
Hotels have seen a considerable turnaround in the past five years given the near-existential threat that the pandemic posed to the sector. Having bottomed last year, we expect values will grow in the coming years, with a pick-up in consumer spending …
20th February 2025
Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while the sector has now re-priced and is set to perform …
12th February 2025
The Central London office pipeline looks set to go from feast to famine over the next few years, with a sharp drop in planned completions from 2027. But we doubt new office supply will run dry. Constraints on development are easing and demand for new, …
10th February 2025
A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in the UK. However, euro-zone banks are still pulling back …
6th February 2025
This is the first in a series of pieces that revisit our pandemic-era forecasts about the future of global real estate markets and cities and explore how they will evolve in the coming years. This dedicated page highlights key analysis from our earlier …
5th February 2025
Concerns about the impact of the Budget, coupled with higher interest rates, led to a moderation in commercial property demand according to the Q4 RICS commercial survey. Capital value expectations also declined and a dip in investment enquiries points to …
30th January 2025
The latest investment figures suggest an upturn in industrial activity after a long slump. But given both stretched valuations and continued economic uncertainty, it may be too early to rule out a relapse in the next couple of quarters, while any recovery …
29th January 2025
Renewed rises in market interest rates across the UK, US and euro-zone have prompted questions about the implications for real estate. For now, we think the upside risk to property yields is small. We still anticipate government bond yields to fall back …
23rd January 2025
With commercial property capital values stabilising and credit conditions easing, the stage was set for a decent recovery in investment this year. However, the recent rise in gilt yields has cast a shadow over the outlook and a fall in UK REIT pricing …
17th January 2025
At first glance the 24% y/y drop in sponsored study visas in Q3 2024 spells bad news for PBSA rents. But the cause of that drop - new rules banning international students from bringing dependents - means the decline will have been concentrated in students …
14th January 2025
Compared to our end-2023 forecasts, property yields look set to end 2024 a bit higher than we anticipated and rental growth stronger. Overall, that means our call for all-property total returns of just over 6% in 2024 will prove correct. Our non-consensus …
8th January 2025
The incoming Trump administration is threatening to put new tariffs on European exports. In our view, given their limited macroeconomic impact, they will not be a game-changer for commercial property. But in some sectors, notably industrial and, within …
18th December 2024
Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back the outlook for returns could be a lot more …
11th December 2024
A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that interest rates will be the key driver of returns next …
9th December 2024
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
29th November 2024
This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for European commercial property. This Update outlines our thoughts on some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the likely winners in …
28th November 2024
The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously. That contrasts to downward revisions in our forecasts, …
27th November 2024
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
26th November 2024
It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent events – the election of Donald Trump and the recent UK …
14th November 2024
We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest rates and property yields, the latter are likely to …
31st October 2024
The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down. That highlights that the road to recovery for commercial …
The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting. However, property equities have been boosted by the …
22nd October 2024
Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with the indicators pointing to annual price growth …
16th October 2024
In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and floorspace and financial vacancy rates has widened in …
10th October 2024
On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted …
7th October 2024
The leisure sector is yet to show signs of recovery from the cost-of-living crisis, in part because still-cautious households are prioritising buying goods rather than expensive leisure services. But a relatively large squeeze on higher-earning …
26th September 2024
We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days a week in the office raises worker productivity and it …
18th September 2024
By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed legislation. That said, an apparent ‘win-win’ ability for …
13th September 2024
