The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously. That contrasts to downward revisions in our forecasts, driven by the October Budget which led us to push up our forecast for interest rates and cut our expectations for consumption growth. Our call for returns of 7.2% p.a. over 2024-28 is therefore below consensus, reflecting our view that property yields will see virtually no compression over the next few years.
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