What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back?

Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back the outlook for returns could be a lot more challenging. However, the impact depends on why interest rates are higher. If gilt yields are higher because the economy is stronger, then faster rental growth and a narrower spread against property yields mean total returns will be close to our central forecast of 7.4% p.a. over 2024-28. But in the case of a supply shock, we estimate total returns will average just 4.8% p.a.