Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The Q2 2010 RICS global commercial property survey points to a divergence in commercial property performance between Italy and the rest of the so-called “PIIGS”. That is consistent with our view that, although rental value decline in Italy is likely to be …
26th July 2010
The increase in Moscow office rental values in Q2 is likely to prove a one-off. Although the occupier market has seen a continued improvement over the past few quarters, we think that the main driving force – the economic recovery – is going to lose …
23rd July 2010
The fact that rises in Greek property yields have accelerated recently highlights the increasing perception of investment risk associated with the country. And with fears of a government default showing no signs of subsiding, risk premiums are likely to …
22nd July 2010
Recent data releases support our view that the Polish retail property market will outperform that of the Czech Republic over the next few years. Indeed, although we do not expect a blistering recovery in occupier demand in either market any time soon, the …
16th July 2010
Fading risk appetite among property investors may put the brakes on the current investment market recovery in Emerging Europe. Indeed, while recent falls in property yields have been encouraging, the pace of further falls is likely to slow or, in some …
13th July 2010
While it is not unreasonable to suggest the Spanish retail property market could be boosted by the national team’s World Cup success, unfortunately we think other factors will continue to provide far more significant influences on occupier demand. As …
12th July 2010
The emerging recovery in Swedish property yields looks set to continue in the near-term. Indeed, we now think that the economic outlook in Sweden is one of the brightest in Western Europe, while property valuations look relatively attractive. That said, …
8th July 2010
Following the plunge in May, June’s small rise in Spanish consumer confidence does little to improve the outlook for the Spanish retail property market. Indeed, with retail sales volumes unlikely to recover in the foreseeable future, occupier demand for …
6th July 2010
The euro-zone commercial property market outlook has been clouded by the sovereign debt crisis, but some markets are more exposed than others. Our latest forecasts envisage a growing divergence among member states. … Mixed economic growth prospects point …
1st July 2010
Since the previous Analyst, we have become a little more optimistic about the outlook for commercial property returns in 2010 and 2011. This mainly reflects the fact that, although the economic and occupier market outlook remains subdued, rental values …
We think that the nascent recovery in French office rental values probably has further to run. Indeed, with business confidence approaching long-run average levels and a risk of undersupply emerging, rental growth of around 6% this year looks plausible. …
23rd June 2010
Commercial property derivatives pricing may be giving too negative a steer on the outlook for French and German capital values. Indeed, in projecting flat or falling property prices, derivatives markets seem to be not only lagging developments on the …
22nd June 2010
Our recent GDP growth forecast downgrade for Romania has strong implications for its property market outlook. This Update analyses the prospects for rental values and yields this year and next. … Romania’s property outlook is …
18th June 2010
Our more upbeat forecasts for the Swiss economy relative to the euro-zone do not imply that Swiss property will continue to outperform. Indeed, we see yields staying put until 2012, meaning that its property market recovery will struggle to get off the …
14th June 2010
Despite a stronger recovery in German industrial production, the French industrial property market is performing better than Germany’s. While we suspect that the extent of that relative outperformance will ease over the next few quarters, we think it is …
10th June 2010
To date, Dutch office rental values have proved remarkably resilient to the sharp spike in vacancy rates. Yet, with demand still weakening and new supply still running at uncomfortably high levels, if anything, we now think that our forecast for a 2.6% …
8th June 2010
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone is bound to weigh heavily on the outlook for Emerging Europe, moderating, if not reversing, hopes for an occupier and investment market recovery. Thus, in our view, with the exception of Turkey, we suspect that …
3rd June 2010
The sharp fall in Belgian industrial rental values in Q1 was probably just a delayed response to the depth of the recession. In any event, we expect the Belgian economy to grow a little faster than the euro-zone average this year. Additionally, Belgian …
2nd June 2010
Although French retail rental values have barely fallen to date, we do not think that their resilience will last. With the economic recovery faltering, and figures released today showing that consumer confidence slipped back again in May, we expect rental …
27th May 2010
Some valuation measures indicate that Emerging European commercial property markets now offer good value. However, the deepening fiscal crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked drop in risk appetite. As a result, we remain cautious over Emerging …
25th May 2010
Although investment activity generally softened, the bigger picture was that the health of investment markets across non-euro-zone Europe continued to improve in Q1 2010. Indeed, yields fell in almost all markets, particularly in the office and retail …
20th May 2010
Recent falls in property yields have lifted capital values in most markets, particularly in Norway and France. But this trend is unlikely to last. Indeed, we think that the yield recovery is likely to slow, while further rental falls could well tip …
19th May 2010
While recent news on the Hungarian economy has been surprisingly positive, we are not yet convinced that a sustainable economic recovery is underway. Among other things, Hungary’s fragile banking sector and the need for further fiscal tightening are …
18th May 2010
Commercial property offers a seemingly attractive premium over bonds. However, once we factor in the weaker economic and occupier market outlook, to us most Western European markets look pricey. We therefore remain cautious over prospects for yields. … …
13th May 2010
Despite a fall in Q1, the underlying trend in European commercial property investment volumes continued to improve gradually. Although still patchy at the city level, falls in euro-zone office and retail yields were extended in Q1, while the biggest falls …
12th May 2010
In the short-term, March’s €535 million net inflow into German open-ended property funds is likely to boost European commercial property investment volumes and may add to the downwards pressure on yields. But it does nothing to change our view that the …
11th May 2010
Having fallen by 100bps since their high in mid-2009, industrial yields in Norway are beginning to look overvalued relative to bonds as well as both office and retail markets. Given that, Q1 2010’s disappointing fall in Norwegian industrial production …
7th May 2010
The rise in take-up in the Moscow office market in Q1 2010 may be less encouraging than it first seems. Indeed, given the large volume of completions, the improvement in demand was only enough to stabilise the vacancy rate. If occupier demand weakens …
5th May 2010
The upbeat message on Poland from yesterday’s Q1 2010 RICS global survey broadly fits with our view that Polish property will be among the best performers in Europe this year. But we are less convinced by the apparent resurgence of confidence in the …
30th April 2010
Today’s Q1 2010 RICS global commercial property survey broadly supports our view that the weak occupier market outlook will drive capital values at least a little lower this year in most Western European property markets. Admittedly, in a few markets, the …
29th April 2010
This morning’s ECB bank lending survey suggests that credit conditions for business and household lending in the euro-zone remained tight in Q1 2010. With expectations for Q2 much the same, this will continue to act as a drag on both occupier and …
28th April 2010
Over the next few years we think that the Polish retail market will outperform most retail markets in both Emerging Europe and the euro-zone. Indeed, the sanguine outlook for retail occupier demand and limited risk of oversupply point to a relatively …
23rd April 2010
Q1’s easing of credit conditions for commercial real estate in Norway will continue to support the nascent property investment market recovery. The recovery in yields is well underway, but we think that interest rate rises this year could limit the extent …
22nd April 2010
The fading recovery in consumer confidence highlights the fact that retail occupier demand in the Netherlands is likely to remain pretty fragile. And with property-specific supports to headline rental values set to become less important, we suspect that …
21st April 2010
Although the risk from new supply is less than in previous cycles, completions in all the major Western European office markets are likely to push vacancy rates up this year. This will keep rental values under downward pressure. The risk from increased …
14th April 2010
With Irish investors having been such big players during the most recent commercial property boom across Europe, there are now concerns (highlighted, for example, in a recent Property Week) that the new Irish National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) may …
13th April 2010
February’s 0.6% monthly fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes suggests that occupier demand for retail space is still weak in the single currency region. And given that the occupier market outlook has not yet improved, we think that the correction in …
8th April 2010
The fact that Turkish household consumption growth turned positive in Q4 is encouraging news for retailer occupier demand. But it needs to be set against the substantial increase in supply expected over the next couple of years. On balance, we think that …
7th April 2010
Over the next two years, we think that the three European countries with the strongest outlook for industrial rental value growth are Poland, France and Switzerland. By contrast, taking into account the prospects for economic recovery, supply …
6th April 2010
We have cut our forecasts for rental value growth in Greece and Portugal over the next two years by around 6% and 4% respectively. The cuts reflect downgrades to our GDP growth forecasts. Our rental forecasts for Spain, Germany, Austria and Italy remain …
1st April 2010
While March’s fall in German unemployment was welcome news, we suspect that renewed rises lie ahead this year as ‘kurzarbeit’ subsidies begin to expire for many workers. However, given that most of these workers are from the hardest hit sectors such as …
31st March 2010
March’s fall in service sector sentiment in France suggests that 2009Q4’s sharp rise in take-up is unlikely to be repeated in 2010Q1. Moreover, with underlying demand also still relatively weak, even if sentiment improves markedly in the near-term, office …
26th March 2010
Along with GDP growth turning negative again in Q4, yesterday’s downgrade of Portugal’s credit rating can be nothing but bad news for commercial property. Even before the downgrade, our analysis suggested that Portuguese property was a little expensive. …
25th March 2010
The recovery in real estate equity prices suggests that capital values in the largest European commercial property markets will rise this year. Indeed, if anything, the risks to our forecasts seem to lie on the upside. However, with much of the recent …
24th March 2010
Although Dutch office rental values have held up well to date, with low occupier confidence and a high volume of completions expected this year, we think the rental value correction has a little further to go. Even so, the overall peak-to-trough fall is …
18th March 2010
At the margin, last week’s upward revision to our forecasts for Russian GDP growth will boost occupier demand for commercial property. However, we still expect the pace of recovery to fade next year, and the GDP forecast revisions are too small to …
17th March 2010
Their recent stabilisation suggests that the correction in Turkish property yields may now be over. With a relatively healthy outlook for the economy, and signs already emerging that rental values are beginning to recover, we are inclined to support this …
11th March 2010
German office rental value growth lagged behind other major markets between 2004 and 2008, but we do not expect a repeat performance over the next few years. We think that the fundamental supports for the German office market are substantially better this …
8th March 2010
A closer look at the movement in French commercial property yields supports the idea that liquidity remains a key consideration for investors as office yields have fallen more sharply than retail or industrial. With the outlook so uncertain, we think that …
4th March 2010
Q4’s dreadful GDP data for Sweden may have pushed back any recovery in commercial property occupier demand and rental values. Together with the prospect of a rising level of distressed sales, we also think that the outlook for Swedish property yields may …
2nd March 2010
