Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
In non-euro-zone Europe, we envisage a divergence between the performance of commercial property markets in emerging and developed economies. Reflecting the relatively strong outlook for economic growth in Russia, Turkey and Poland, commercial property …
28th January 2011
Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead, the bigger risk may be the lingering impact on …
Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in preferences may well be justified for risk management …
27th January 2011
Finland’s strong external trade links should mean that industrial occupier demand in Helsinki holds up better than many other euro-zone cities over the next couple of years. And given that industrial rents are low compared to mid-2000 levels, there is …
13th January 2011
The relative strength of the Polish economy compared to the Czech Republic during the global economic downturn has helped to push commercial property yields in Warsaw below those in Prague. Given our view that the economic outlook for Poland is amongst …
12th January 2011
The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and, in our view, should not be seen as signal that …
7th January 2011
The relative strength of Swedish economic growth in 2010 has helped to push industrial property yields in Stockholm below those in Copenhagen. Although almost unprecedented, with the Swedish economy set to outperform its neighbour for the foreseeable …
5th January 2011
A comparison of prime commercial property yields to estimates of their fair value levels presents a mixed picture. While a few seem overvalued, and a few more fairly valued, many still look quite cheap. Even so, with below-average levels of liquidity and …
17th December 2010
Their high starting point, a large development pipeline and a greater sensitivity to developments in the domestic economy all help to explain the relatively large falls in industrial rental values in Rome. But there is little reason to believe that that …
14th December 2010
Retail rental values in Emerging Europe are sensitive to currency fluctuations. Indeed, the weakness of the Romanian leu may help to explain why retail rents in Bucharest have been so weak this year. In 2011, however, currency movements pose the largest …
9th December 2010
For now, the recent poor health of some German open-ended property funds is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on European property investment demand. But the potential for more fund liquidations suggests that the supply of commercial property for sale, …
8th December 2010
On first glance, it is striking that falls in property yields in Lyon have more or less matched those in Paris. However, with broadly similar prospects for rental value growth, at least for the retail and industrial sectors, and given that the current …
2nd December 2010
The recent strength of the Swedish krona has not prevented a modest recovery in industrial rents. Yet, further appreciation looks imminent and the growth outlook in Sweden’s key export markets is weak. That said, on the plus side, next year’s planned …
29th November 2010
Given our fairly downbeat view on Hungary’s consumer sector outlook, the continued above-average performance of the Budapest retail investment market is difficult to rationalise. In our view, the weak outlook for occupier demand, together with our …
26th November 2010
Reflecting improvements in economic activity, there have recently been isolated reports of rising prime office rental values in parts of the euro-zone. While the floor for rents is now behind us, given our sub-consensus view on the economic outlook, past …
24th November 2010
Recent falls in Norwegian industrial yields have been a little surprising given the still fragile fundamentals for industrial occupier demand and rental value growth. As such, we think that the current spread between industrial and office/retail yields is …
18th November 2010
There are clear signs that investment demand for Western European commercial property is beginning to fade. Across the region, transaction volumes have begun to fall, or have levelled off at relatively low levels. For now, Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) …
17th November 2010
Recent moves in euro-zone real estate equity prices point to solid near term all-property capital value growth in France, but a period of broad stagnation in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. However, we suspect that this implied outlook is too positive …
9th November 2010
Given the huge economic and political uncertainties facing Belgium, the recent widening in the spread between office yields in Brussels and other cities seems entirely rational. Indeed, we suspect that these wider yield spreads still understate the …
8th November 2010
The latest RICS global property survey points to some signs of life in European commercial property occupier markets. Unfortunately, however, rising tenant demand does not appear to be offsetting new supply and surveyors’ expectations for rental values, …
4th November 2010
One of the most striking aspects of Q3’s RICS global property survey was the marked improvement in surveyors’ expectations for German capital values. We find it hard to take issue with the new, more upbeat tone as it brings the survey broadly in to line …
3rd November 2010
The recovery in European investment volumes appears to have reached a plateau. Unfortunately, yesterday’s ECB Bank Lending Survey, which showed a further net tightening of credit standards to firms, together with the fact that the region faces a painful …
29th October 2010
The recovery in European commercial property investment volumes seen since early 2009 seems to have reached a plateau. Although euro-zone property assets still look relatively attractively priced compared to bonds and equities, restricted finance and …
28th October 2010
October’s fall in economic sentiment in the Czech Republic suggests that a recovery in occupier demand for commercial property is not yet imminent. Indeed, rental value prospects for office, retail or industrial property have not improved and we are …
25th October 2010
We suspect that Q3’s halt to Paris’ prime office rental recovery is a temporary blip on a generally upward trend. Indeed, although service sector sentiment has remained broadly flat for the past few months, firms appear to be gradually increasing …
21st October 2010
Q3’s sharp slowdown in the pace of Dutch retail yield falls supports our view that there is little value left in the market. Although sound public finances and a solid labour market are positive factors for the Dutch retail sector, fragile confidence and …
20th October 2010
The experience of the early 2000s was that the Brussels office market prospered in a weak macroeconomic environment. With the euro-zone economy now facing another protracted period of subtrend economic growth, we think that office rental values in …
14th October 2010
The relatively attractive pricing of the Polish commercial property market compared to markets in the West appears to have driven a surge in investment market activity. Looking ahead, we think that investment demand may remain buoyant, but there is …
13th October 2010
Commercial property occupier markets in most of non-euro-zone Europe appear to have bottomed out a little earlier than we had previously anticipated. Our forecasts now reflect this. Nevertheless, occupier market recoveries will be held back by weak …
6th October 2010
We suspect that euro-zone commercial property yields may fall a little further by the end of this year. However, the bulk of the investment market recovery may well be behind us. Subdued economic growth will prevent a rapid recovery in rental values any …
Compared to US Government bonds and Russian equities, as well as property markets in other countries, Russian property still appears to be attractively priced. As such, investment demand looks set to improve further in H2 2010 and we think that yields may …
1st October 2010
Yesterday’s disappointing Q2 Irish GDP figures support our view that the economy will stagnate at best over this year and next. Although commercial property prices have already fallen by more than 70%, suggesting that a floor may be close, the weak …
24th September 2010
Within Central & Eastern Europe, there have been some signs of a recovery in occupier demand, most notably in Poland. However, despite supply pipelines having been drastically reduced across the region, we do not think demand is yet strong enough to …
23rd September 2010
A shortage of supply in the Central London office market is likely to drive relatively strong rental growth this year and next. In Europe, however, although office development pipelines have also been scaled back, with typically high vacancy rates and …
16th September 2010
The fact that the euro-zone industrial recovery appears to be losing momentum does not bode well for industrial occupier demand or rental values across the region. As such, our forecasts that falls in industrial rents in H1 2010 will be extended in H2 …
14th September 2010
The outlook for office occupier demand looks to be considerably stronger in Warsaw than in Prague. What’s more, completion volumes in Warsaw are finally beginning to slow, suggesting that the vacancy rate could fall next year. As such, we continue to …
9th September 2010
The latest rise in Swedish interest rates may raise concerns that the nascent commercial property market recovery could slow. But that seems unlikely. For one thing, interest rates are still very low, while the pace of further tightening looks set to be …
8th September 2010
The increase in Spanish household spending in the first half of 2010 suggests that the outlook for Spanish retail property may be improving. However, we remain cautious. Among other things, with one-fifth of the workforce unemployed and the full impact of …
3rd September 2010
Recent economic data suggest that the export-led recovery in Germany is spreading to domestic demand. However, there are reasons to remain cautious and our view remains that the scope for the German retail market to outperform is limited. … Time to be …
1st September 2010
The recent sharp fall in Hungarian prime retail yields is encouraging. However, we suspect that the recovery may have got ahead of itself. In our view, the very weak consumer outlook and the potential for further exchange rate volatility suggest that …
25th August 2010
The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth comparatively strong, it seems likely that investment …
23rd August 2010
Boosted by the low level of unemployment and relatively attractive pricing, strong demand among large institutional investors has pushed prime retail yields down in the Netherlands more so than anywhere else. However, in our view, it would be difficult to …
20th August 2010
The recovery in Stockholm’s prime office yields may have got off to a late start, but we do not think their underperformance relative to the neighbouring Nordic markets of Copenhagen and Oslo will continue. Now that it is clear that Sweden is enjoying a …
18th August 2010
The surprisingly strong rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 2010 is probably less supportive for occupier markets than it appears at first sight. For a start, the region remains vulnerable to a slowdown in global demand, while spare capacity should act as a brake …
13th August 2010
Investment market activity strengthened in the second quarter across the UK, Scandinavia and Emerging Europe with the result that initial yields fell a little further in a number of office, retail and industrial markets. While the spread between property …
10th August 2010
Compared to offices, history suggests that retail property yields in Paris are too low. The weak outlook for consumer spending and the stronger outlook for office rental value growth point to the same conclusion. But any normalisation in the retail/office …
5th August 2010
Our analysis of the recent recession confirms that the volatility of headline retail rents in Emerging Europe can be exacerbated by swings in the exchange rate. Indeed, we estimate that each 1% fall in the exchange rate pushed headline retail rental …
3rd August 2010
The gradual recovery in European commercial property investment volumes extended into Q2 2010. As a result, with the exception of Greece, property yields were either stable or fell slightly in all euro-zone markets over the quarter. But with escalating …
29th July 2010
