Does the ruble pose a threat to the Russian retail rental recovery?

Retail rental values in Emerging Europe are sensitive to currency fluctuations. Indeed, the weakness of the Romanian leu may help to explain why retail rents in Bucharest have been so weak this year. In 2011, however, currency movements pose the largest threat to retail rents in Russia. As global growth slows and oil prices fall, we think that the Russian ruble could drop by 20% against the US dollar. If so, that will at least partially offset the positive impact of consumer spending growth on retail rents.