Europe Commercial Property Update

Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south

Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view...

3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations

Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26...

29th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak

Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag...

15th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Office utilisation rising but space cutting to drag on

European office occupier surveys reveal that office attendance and utilisation has continued to rise over the past year and that it could still improve a bit further. However, despite the rise in...

12th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment turns a corner, but recovery will be uneven

The Q2 rise in euro-zone investment marks the start of the recovery, but one that will be weak and uneven across markets. Economic and political concerns means investment in Germany and France is...

7th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment recovering, but not without risks

While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Office conversion proceeding faster than expected

We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CBD shift clearest in the largest office markets

At the end of the pandemic, there was a view that remote working would drive a wedge between CBD and other submarket rents. The evidence of this remains uneven. But in some cities, notably Paris and...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

RICS survey sours on France, turns upbeat on values

The Q2 RICS survey showed that sentiment toward offices is improving – occupier demand balances saw the largest sectoral rise and rent and value growth expectations were raised. With year-ahead...

25th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France

Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery

The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports

Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while...

4th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis

News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read