Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
After a strong upturn in 2010 and most of 2011, office rents in Moscow have stabilised. Given that the economy is likely to slow and that the vacancy rate amongst the capital’s existing office stock is still high, we doubt that a renewed upturn in rents …
31st July 2012
Exports to the troubled, peripheral euro-zone economies account for a relatively high share of GDP in both Hungary and the Czech Republic. And the open nature of both economies also leaves them exposed to the indirect effects of the crisis on global …
26th July 2012
Over the next couple of years, the response of Western European retail rental values to weak consumer spending is likely to be muted, in other words more similar to the experience of 2008/9 than to the early 1990s. … How will European retail rental values …
24th July 2012
The latest indicators from the Paris office market suggest that occupier demand is softening while development activity is picking up. Accordingly, our concern that the city will face a supply overhang and, thus, a downturn in rental values next year …
19th July 2012
We think that the safe-haven status of Switzerland’s commercial property market has allowed Swiss all-property yields to fall to very low levels. But now they look stretched and vulnerable to a deterioration in the economic outlook. Hence, if we are right …
18th July 2012
The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for negative rental growth expectations, above-average …
12th July 2012
Early last year, we argued that the investment case for the Italian retail market was weak. If anything, the situation has worsened since then. Indeed, a negative outlook for rents, coupled with heightened political uncertainty, suggests that required …
11th July 2012
One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that relatively poor scores on important transparency components …
4th July 2012
Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our forecasts that investment will generally either be lower …
2nd July 2012
The latest snapshot of business and consumer confidence across Europe suggests that conditions in euro-zone occupier markets have deteriorated during the second quarter. However, in the short-term, the outlook for demand, and thus rental values, looks …
28th June 2012
The current low share prices of French REITs relative to NAVs might suggest that there is value in the sector. But given that French property yields are low, and that the economy is likely to contract this year and next, we think that low valuations are a …
25th June 2012
A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed without undue problems. But over the next two years, our view …
21st June 2012
The strong performance of Norway’s economy in Q1 raises the question whether our retail rental value forecasts may be a touch gloomy. However, given that international retailers are looking to scale back expansion plans in the face of the euro-zone …
20th June 2012
Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This is down to supply-side factors and the fact that Madrid …
13th June 2012
On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall further over the next couple years. And together with our …
12th June 2012
Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the rest of Emerging Europe. But with a slightly higher …
8th June 2012
Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in the first three months of the year. However, in Q1, …
1st June 2012
Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant rents this year will be overshot. But if we are right, a …
30th May 2012
For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the historic relationships between growth in commercial property …
24th May 2012
In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European economic outlook suggest that investment demand will be …
21st May 2012
The compression in office yields in Bucharest seen over the past two years is hard to reconcile with weak financial service sector activity, and the implied weakening in occupier demand. Therefore, we see no reason to revise our forecast that Bucharest …
18th May 2012
The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown seen over the past year now seems to be negatively …
16th May 2012
Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and worst in Hungary and Romania. But the message from the …
10th May 2012
Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets face a double-dip this year and next. … Is the Q1 fall …
8th May 2012
Non-euro-zone European economies will not be immune to a fresh recession in the euro-zone. We expect all economies in the region to undergo a sharp slowdown in growth or worse. Barring perhaps Poland, Russia and Turkey, we do not think that occupier …
2nd May 2012
Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all member states will slip back into recession in 2012 …
The results of the KOF survey released this morning did little to change our view that office rents will decline this year. Subdued economic growth is likely to trigger fresh weakness in the labour market with the result that office rental values fall by …
27th April 2012
An analysis of real estate equity prices suggests that our strongly negative capital value growth projections for 2012 may be pessimistic. However, since equity markets have not yet fully priced in the fragmentation of the euro-zone – a scenario which is …
23rd April 2012
In our view, the plunge in French commercial property investment volumes in the first quarter of 2012 highlights some fundamental weaknesses in the market. And if we are right that the French economy will slip back into recession this year, the fact that …
18th April 2012
The fact that the Irish economy slipped back into recession in the latter half of last year lends support to our view that, taking 2012 and 2013 together, Dublin office rental values will fall by a further 10%. However, preliminary agency data, which …
16th April 2012
February’s unexpected rise in euro-zone industrial production might raise hopes that the strength of industrial occupier demand in the single currency region has improved. But we are not convinced. The narrower measure of manufacturing production revealed …
12th April 2012
To the extent that the latest sell-off in Spanish and Italian bonds prompts investors to steer clear of commercial property in either market, the resultant drop in liquidity is likely to put upwards pressure on property yields. In any event, with Italy …
11th April 2012
This morning’s PMI data suggest that business activity in the euro-zone’s service sector remains subdued. And if the past relationships between employment PMIs and office rental value growth continue to hold, it looks as though the rental value recoveries …
4th April 2012
February’s fall in German retail sales volumes served as a timely reminder that the strong recovery in retail rents in the euro-zone’s largest economy cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, while retail rental growth should slow, the continued …
2nd April 2012
Yesterday’s retail sales data from Poland suggest that occupier demand for retail floorspace in Warsaw is still strong relative to most of Europe. But the big picture is that consumer spending growth is likely to slow by more than most expect this year. …
27th March 2012
2011 was a record-breaking year for take-up in the Budapest office market. Yet this failed to drive any form of recovery in office rents. Unfortunately, with employment set to fall and occupier confidence to remain low, it looks more likely than not that …
26th March 2012
Recent macroeconomic indicators from Denmark might raise hopes that the outlook for Copenhagen retail rental values has improved significantly. But with the impact of past falls in household spending still yet to be seen in the rental data, and a strong …
22nd March 2012
Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also look at risk of an unfavourable combination of supply and …
20th March 2012
In our view, over 2012-13, Portugal will endure the second deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, the gap between the Portuguese property/bond yield spread and its long-term average is by no means unusually high. Given that, and the weak rental …
16th March 2012
Investment market activity across Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) in the final stages of 2011 was not as weak as the initial estimates suggested. Even so, because of the weak economic outlook for most countries in the region, which will tend to dampen …
13th March 2012
Prime office capital values in Munich in 2011 outperformed the other main German cities, thanks mainly to a sharp rise in office rents. But while this rise might have raised the scope for office rents in Munich now to undergo a period of relative …
8th March 2012
One interpretation of the sharp jump in investment activity in Spain at the end of last year is that overseas investors stepped up their interest in distressed property in anticipation that values may be close to, if not at, a floor. Yet if the economy …
6th March 2012
This morning’s news that Swedish GDP contracted by 1.1%q/q in Q4 last year suggests that our forecast for Stockholm industrial rents to fall by 1% this year may now prove to be too optimistic. Whether that is true or not, the outperformance of Stockholm …
29th February 2012
The strong increase in take-up in the Dublin office market in 2011 is not as encouraging as it first seems. For one thing, survey evidence and labour market data suggest that the strength of underlying occupier demand is still deteriorating. As a result, …
28th February 2012
2011 was a relatively strong year for Emerging European commercial property markets. But falls in yields and increases in rents became smaller and less widespread in the final quarter of the year. As a result, the performance gap between the East and the …
24th February 2012
This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a technical recession, suggesting that occupier demand for …
22nd February 2012
The final quarter of 2011 brought the strongest evidence yet that the downward phase in euro-zone commercial property yields has not only come to an end, but has started to go into reverse. Falling economic output even in the region’s strongest economies …
16th February 2012
News from the Czech Republic this morning revealed that it slipped back into a technical recession in the second half of 2011. This has had little meaningful impact on the commercial property market so far. But, in common with Hungary and Romania, we …
15th February 2012
We think that Dutch commercial property values will fall this year and next as the economy slides back into recession. But one view, emanating from the Netherlands Central Bank (DNB) last week, is that structural weaknesses in the market also pose …
10th February 2012
Recent survey evidence suggests that the rental outlook in France is about as bad as it is in Portugal. We agree that the prospects for French rental values are pretty weak. However, the sheer scale of economic downturn that we expect in Portugal over the …
6th February 2012
