Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The latest data showing that Dublin’s employment and housing market recovery are running ahead of the rest of Ireland bode well for retail occupier demand in the Irish capital. And, with tight supply conditions, and yields still high relative to other …
17th July 2014
Recent data confirm that a slowdown in euro-zone export orders has led to slowing of industrial production growth in the CEE region. Nevertheless, with rental values yet to rebound from post-crisis lows, and given scope for further yield compression, the …
14th July 2014
Over the past six years, office-based employment growth in Munich has outperformed the other major German cities. In contrast, job creation in Frankfurt has been below par. This helps to explain the relative underperformance of office rental value growth …
10th July 2014
France’s large shopping centre pipeline is consistent with the below average level of existing stock. Although it is unlikely to result in a supply overhang, given the weak retail demand fundamentals it is another reason to expect French retail rents to …
9th July 2014
Subdued take-up combined with speculative development mean that the short-term risks for rental values in Geneva and particularly Zurich lie to the downside. Nevertheless, with GDP set to grow strongly and most sectors looking to hire more workers, rental …
3rd July 2014
Ireland, Portugal, Hungary and Romania all registered strong improvements in JLL’s 2014 Global RealEstate Transparency Index. As such, in these countries the scope for yields to narrow seems to haveimproved a touch due to the increased potential for a …
2nd July 2014
Temporary factors seem to be behind the recent strength of Hungarian retail sales growth, while the relatively high risk premium for Budapest retail yields seems merited. As such, over the next year or two there seems little potential for strong gains for …
27th June 2014
We expect household spending growth in Norway to be subdued by past standards as households grapple with exceptionally high levels of debt. Coupled with last year’s double-digit rental value increases, this implies little if any scope for further gains in …
25th June 2014
Based on historical patterns alone, it might seem that there is ample scope for a strong rebound in rental values in both Dublin and Lisbon. Yet once other economic factors are taken into account, the potential for a large rise in Lisbon rental values …
18th June 2014
Paris industrial occupier conditions continue to be challenging. Yet the increasing need for modern stock could still drive rental growth. And, with increased investor appetite for logistics exposure, over the next year or two further yield compression …
12th June 2014
Last year’s fall in Bucharest capital values seems at odds with Romania’s strong economic growth. But it does appear consistent with the large degree of spare capacity generated by the prior economic downturn and a pre-crisis development boom. …
11th June 2014
Euro-zone occupier markets stand to benefit as economic growth becomes broader based across the region. Yet while property investment in most countries should increase as a result, over the next year there are a number of reasons to expect Germany to …
5th June 2014
Despite dropping by 40% since 2008, we are not convinced that prime rental values in the main Spanish office markets are now obviously too low. While we do envisage a recovery over the next few years, with rents forecast to grow by an average of 3% per …
3rd June 2014
Recent data suggest that the Turkish economy is in good health, and beginning to show signs of a welcome rebalancing. However, as a consequence, retail sales are starting to suffer from measures to reduce credit growth. Such a slowdown will increase the …
30th May 2014
A surge in Austrian property investment has helped to drive Vienna office and retail yields to record lows. These yields will not be sustainable once interest rates and bond yields normalise. But given how well occupier markets have performed since the …
28th May 2014
Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high levels of spare capacity still evident in many markets, that …
22nd May 2014
We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral economies begins to unwind. Yet the predominantly …
In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the Italian economy as a whole will grow at all this year. …
15th May 2014
Despite the slowdown in industrial production, the outlook for euro-zone logistics property remains positive. In particular, the improved outlook for consumers, as well as the growing penetration of e-commerce, will boost logistics occupier demand. Yet …
12th May 2014
Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul offices and Prague logistics saw yields drop by more than …
8th May 2014
Absent another shock, over the next few quarters, further falls in the peripheral property yields are likely. However, with deflation lurking in the background and yields already low, core yields are unlikely to follow, implying that, at the euro-zone …
7th May 2014
The balance of evidence suggests that conditions in the euro-zone economy improved a little further in Q1. However, convincing evidence that this is now feeding into a clear improvement in occupier market conditions is hard to come by. Nevertheless, the …
2nd May 2014
Czech consumer confidence hit a six-year high in April. Yet the labour market is still weak and the recent strong pace of growth in retail sales may overstate the underlying health of consumer demand. Thus the outlook for rental growth in the Prague …
1st May 2014
The recent slump in Dutch industrial production masks a better trend in manufacturing growth. Yet given the sustained nature of the economic downturn, the outlook for industrial occupier demand and rental growth remains weak. Nevertheless, we do expect …
25th April 2014
All sectors of the Dublin property market received a boost from tightening yields during the first quarter. However, while there seems scope for further yield compression in the retail and industrial sectors, this looks increasingly less true for offices. …
23rd April 2014
The low level of confidence in the Italian service sector throughout 2013 is consistent with the underperformance of office capital values versus retail. But while services confidence has since risen, we don’t believe an abrupt turnaround in the office …
16th April 2014
Denmark’s lack of external competitiveness and production lost through outsourcing help explain why industrial property yields in Copenhagen remain at a post-crisis high. Yet the outlook for rents now seems positive, which should attract investors’ …
15th April 2014
Falls in office rental values in Zurich and Geneva seem at odds with the growing Swiss economy. But for Zurich at least, weakness in the financial services sector seems to explain why office take-up has been so poor. In Geneva, meanwhile, space …
10th April 2014
An increased preference amongst occupiers for shopping centre space and a run-down of leasing incentives probably help to explain why headline shop rents in Brussels have now been flat for three years in a row. A meaningful upturn isn’t imminent, but a …
9th April 2014
Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain has yet to emerge, the retail and logistics sector seems …
4th April 2014
The fact that office yields in Stockholm have fallen below retail yields looks like a mispricing that will be reversed in due course. The good news, however, is that the Swedish economy and occupier markets appear to be recovering. Thus, in the absence of …
2nd April 2014
A broad-based economic recovery combined with a modest development pipeline points to rents in the major German office markets making steady gains over the next few years. Yet the recent pick-up in financial services activity, combined with some potential …
28th March 2014
We believe that the outlook for occupier demand and rental values in Poland is among the best in Europe. But much of that good news already seems to be reflected in Polish yields which are low. Thus the outlook for capital values and total returns, while …
26th March 2014
Buoyant economic sentiment in Hungary may overstate the underlying health of the domestic economy. We would not be surprised if sentiment and GDP growth cooled later this year. Nevertheless, strengthening external demand should offer some support for …
20th March 2014
The Norwegian krone is not a key driver of industrial rental values in Oslo. That said, at the margin, the currency’s fall is another reason to expect the recovery in industrial rental values over the past year to be extended. … What effect will the …
19th March 2014
The 80% rise in Czech investment volumes in 2013 was more than double the average recorded across the CEE region as a whole. But the underlying trend is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest. However, Czech property does not look overvalued and the …
13th March 2014
The economic recovery, combined with improving business confidence, should help to boost occupier demand in Brussels this year. But with leasing incentives still generous and the economic recovery likely to be slow, a rapid recovery in office rental …
10th March 2014
We have not made material changes to the majority of our economic forecasts since our previous Analyst. Nevertheless, we have edged up our forecasts for capital value growth in a number of non-euro-zone property markets. On the whole, the key driver of …
5th March 2014
Euro-zone property markets ended the year on strong note, with many seeing a material rise in investment market activity. Small falls in yields were also more common than not. Our economic forecasts are little changed from our previous Analyst. As such, …
Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is an increased risk that our central forecast for …
27th February 2014
Retail rental values in Stockholm ended 2013 strongly, rising by 2%q/q in Q4. This pushed the annual rate of rental growth above 2% for the first time since mid-2012. We expect rental growth to accelerate even further from here, as the consumer sector …
26th February 2014
Some of the conditions that preceded Ireland’s strong investment market recovery a couple of years ago are now evident in Portugal. GDP is expanding at a decent rate, while the deficit reduction programme appears to be on track. However, property …
18th February 2014
Broad-based economic growth across the euro-zone in Q4 last year clearly helps to explain the recent widespread falls in property yields. We doubt that GDP growth across the region will suddenly surge ahead, but the risks to property yields this year may …
17th February 2014
Investment demand for commercial property in 2013 as a whole was relatively strong in the UK and Emerging Europe. But it weakened in Scandinavia, despite signs of improving economic fundamentals and an easing of commercial property credit conditions. …
13th February 2014
Further rises in euro-zone economic activity and sentiment over the past few months have helped to maintain a robust level of investment demand for commercial property in the region. And in contrast to recent trends, occupier market activity finally …
7th February 2014
The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the current level of rents, as well as our macro forecasts, we …
5th February 2014
Evidence of a budding economic recovery and a comparatively high level of property yields have boosted investor interest in Copenhagen. There are reasons not to get carried away. But the upside risks to our 2014-18 forecasts for property seem to be …
30th January 2014
Strong investment market activity in the fourth quarter, particularly in Spain and other peripheral markets, suggests that our 2014 forecast for unchanged yields in most euro-zone property markets may be too cautious. Yet while the weight of money may …
28th January 2014
The strength of the Russian investment market may suggest that our forecast for unchanged office and retail yields this year and next is too cautious. But the subdued economic outlook, the falls in yields already seen, as well as renewed interest in some …
22nd January 2014
The recent weakness in euro-zone real estate equity prices suggests that capital value growth in the physical property market will slow to zero over the coming quarters. Improved confidence within the industry may help to eke out a recovery in investment …
20th January 2014
