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With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same profound impact on global commodity markets as China has …
10th September 2024
Will OPEC+ ever increase output? The big news this week was the decision by some OPEC+ members to extend their voluntary output cuts until December. For context, these producers had originally announced they would begin raising output from next month. …
6th September 2024
OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its voluntary production cuts even more of a close call. On the …
5th September 2024
The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above $80pb. Recent reports indicate the group is undecided on …
4th September 2024
Traditional gold drivers pick up the reins Much of the chatter in the gold market this year has been about the role of non-traditional drivers – particularly demand from China – in propelling the gold price higher. (Our latest Commodities Focus , …
30th August 2024
Against the backdrop of central bank buying, strong physical gold demand, and a surge in ETF holdings, China appears to have been a key driver of the rally in gold prices earlier this year. Looking ahead, we think that China’s appetite for gold will grow …
29th August 2024
The apparent stall in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas limited the fall in oil prices this week. While we think a deal wouldn’t be a game-changer for oil prices, a further breakdown in talks could cause prices to spike. Meanwhile, data …
23rd August 2024
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region – would probably not itself be a game-changer for …
19th August 2024
The strike at the world’s largest copper mine, Chinese export curbs on another critical mineral and the iron ore price tumbling to a yearly low rocked metals and minerals markets this week. While we suspect that global copper prices won’t be too affected …
16th August 2024
Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation is very different to that during the energy crisis. …
12th August 2024
It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat ; whereas some have remained buoyant throughout, others were already …
9th August 2024
US recession fears mask growing Middle East risks Commodities have not been immune to the recent turmoil in financial markets, with the prices of most industrial metals, agricultural, and energy commodities extending their downward trends over the past …
7th August 2024
Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further over the next few years. However, while attention has …
The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far, and will rise back to $80pb by the end of the year. …
6th August 2024
The oil market's fairly muted reaction to events in the Middle East this week only temporarily reversed the recent downward trend in oil prices. On the face of it, however, the risk of a spike in oil prices which would likely arise from a more direct …
2nd August 2024
The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to pressure on its already strained public finances, and would …
29th July 2024
While many of Vice President Kamala Harris’ climate policies are likely to be similar to Biden’s, her track record suggests she could take a firmer stance on fossil fuel production. However, regardless of who wins the election, we think US crude …
26th July 2024
The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals are not worth their weight in gold. What’s more, with …
Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will shrink when a huge increase in global LNG supply begins …
24th July 2024
Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might happen to sanctions on Russia, and the possible …
23rd July 2024
The weaker-than-expected economic activity data for China in Q2 weighed on industrial metals prices early in the week. The mood was further darkened by the lack of any specific stimulus announcements at the Third Plenum and resulted in most industrial …
19th July 2024
Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will offset some of the demand destruction. But jewellery …
17th July 2024
The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the fundamentals still point to large gains in the EU carbon …
Gold prices are going for gold…again The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a stronger dollar. …
12th July 2024
While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of the broader macro debate revolves around market share, …
11th July 2024
Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power. But hydrogen is not the best option in many …
10th July 2024
Hurricane Beryl puts oil and gas supply in peril While Hurricane Beryl took a tragic and heavy toll on communities and economies in the Caribbean this week, its impact on fossil fuel production in the Gulf of Mexico looks set to be relatively small. …
5th July 2024
China overcapacity fears coming to industrial metals China’s dominant role in the world of commodities is evolving subtly. This is particularly the case for gold, where increased demand by the PBoC and Chinese retail investors has weakened the importance …
3rd July 2024
The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. While there was little of note in the closely trailed headline numbers – participants indicate that oil and natural gas production …
28th June 2024
Overview – We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to cloud the outlook for industrial metals. …
27th June 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
This week's weaker-than-expected activity data in China seems to be at odds with the broadly flat or slight increases in base metals prices this week. (see Chart 1.) The big picture however is, that the data released this week add to the argument that …
21st June 2024
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non-compliant ones. 1. What is the EUDR? The EUDR is a new …
17th June 2024
The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only part of the picture. In its annual oil report, …
14th June 2024
The US economy has persistently outperformed its peers for over a century, and as our Spotlight series argues, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. More recently, the US has also benefited from securing low-cost energy supplies. But these …
13th June 2024
The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel means that it will peak a few years later around …
12th June 2024
The decision by OPEC+ last Sunday to increase output from October caught investors by surprise and sent oil prices sinking to below $78 per barrel early in the week. Ahead of the meeting, investors had expected that the cuts would be rolled over for the …
7th June 2024
A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so assessing any potential impacts on commodity prices is …
6th June 2024
OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply constrained in the near term. But the unwinding of some of these cuts from October will mean that the oil market is better supplied over 2025 and oil prices should fall. Ample gas …
The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply constrained and should support oil prices over the rest of this year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have continued to rally on the back of risks to Europe’s …
5th June 2024
The rally in industrial metals prices over the last few months has begun to unwind and, because it seemed based on excessive optimism, we think prices will fall further over the coming months. After all, while industrial metals demand will recover this …
4th June 2024
At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed th rough and that output gradually increases from October, pushing the crude market …
OPEC+ keep screws tight for another quarter The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts for another quarter will, in our view, push the crude oil market into a sizeable deficit in Q3. Oil supply will be more constrained than we had …
3rd June 2024
The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production cuts into the second half of this year. But a host of …
31st May 2024
Natural gas bucks the trend In a week dominated by sharp falls in oil and precious metals prices, the 12% jump in European natural gas prices has been a notable outlier. Although the front-month TTF benchmark price has slipped back in trading today, at …
24th May 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
20th May 2024
Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry consolidation, productivity improvements running out of steam, and …
The second consecutive monthly reduction in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 oil demand growth forecast this week further widened the wedge between the IEA’s and OPEC’s near-term outlooks. Against the backdrop of the recent falls in oil prices …
17th May 2024
