The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above $80pb. Recent reports indicate the group is undecided on whether to press ahead with its previously announced output increases. If it does so in its entirety in order to placate members’ desire to restore market share, that would add to the downside risks to our below consensus end-2025 oil price forecast.
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