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This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, Fed and ECB policy in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Thursday 31 st July. (Register here .) Households becoming …
29th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, Fed and ECB policy in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Thursday 31 st July. (Register here .) Disappointing end to Q2 …
25th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Upside risks to inflation continue to fade July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and …
24th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Good start to the year over and tax rises to come Despite the £3.6bn overshoot in June, public borrowing is still in line with the OBR’s forecasts for the first three months of …
22nd July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fallout not as big, but payroll employment still falling The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as …
17th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Unexpected rise in inflation probably won’t prevent further rate cuts The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE …
16th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Hangover continues, but signs of a recovery building The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP …
11th July 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’ll be discussing how the government has influenced the UK economy in its first year in office. Register for in-person Roundtables at our London office on Tuesday 1 st July …
30th June 2025
At our in-person Roundtables in London on Tuesday 1 st July, clients can discuss with our economists and their peers how the government has influenced the UK economy in its first year in office. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional …
23rd June 2025
We’re hosting in-person Roundtables in London on Tuesday 1st July, where clients can discuss with our economists and their peers how the government has influenced the economy in its first year in office. (Register here .) This page has been updated with …
20th June 2025
At our in-person Roundtables in London on Tuesday 1 st July, clients can discuss with our economists and their peers how the government has influenced the economy in its first year in office. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional …
Dovish hold supports our view of August cut and rates falling to 3.50% or below next year The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle …
19th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, Fed and ECB policy in a 20 minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Thursday 19 th June. (Register here .) We're hosting in-person …
18th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy coming back down to earth The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued …
12th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Looser labour market driving softer wage pressures With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more …
10th June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further signs consumers are starting to spend a bit more freely April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs …
2nd June 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The sun won’t shine on the retail sector forever Although for the first time since 2015, excluding the pandemic, retail sales volumes have risen for four months in a row, April’s …
23rd May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak economy helping to reduce upside inflation risks Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q …
22nd May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing borrowing figures highlight Chancellor’s lack of wiggle room April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More than one-off rises The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more …
21st May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. A temporary burst rather than a sign of a fundamentally stronger economy The bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated as a lot of it was due to a leap in …
15th May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky wage growth will mean the Bank of England remains cautious The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But …
13th May 2025
For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here . More rate cuts coming, but not as quickly as the markets expect While cutting interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today, the Bank of England poured some cold water on the markets’ …
8th May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households tighten their purse strings March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence …
1st May 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. March may be as bright as it gets as confidence slides March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a …
25th April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tariffs dampening activity but not yet inflation The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be …
23rd April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fiscal position worse than OBR predicted even before US tariffs bite March’s public finances figures showed that public borrowing was overshooting the OBR’s forecast even before …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Dip in inflation won’t last, but weak economy will quash inflation eventually The dip in CPI inflation from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March (CE forecast 2.6%, consensus 2.7%) …
16th April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jobs growth weakens with more to come While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain …
15th April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Surprisingly strong growth to prove short-lived, as rises in tariffs and taxes bite The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus +0.1%, CE 0.0%) and the …
11th April 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tentative signs households may be starting to spend a bit more freely February’s money and lending figures provide some green shoots of households starting to save less and spend …
31st March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bumper rise in retail sales suggests households may be spending more freely Today’s deluge of data confirmed that the economy was weak even before the full effects of higher …
28th March 2025
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Markets may be concerned about unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger …
26th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Temporary dip in inflation may not help the BoE or Chancellor much The dip in CPI inflation from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February (CE & consensus 2.9%, BoE 2.8%) is a bit of a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stubbornly high UK price pressures will add to BoE’s worries With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is …
24th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Gloomy news ahead of next week’s spring fiscal event Although it will have no impact on the fiscal update next week, the significant overshoot in borrowing in February highlights …
21st March 2025
For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here . Committee less committed to collection of rate cuts The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in the …
20th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market cooling rather collapsing With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut …
The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1%, CE -0.2%) highlights the weakness of the economy before the full effects of the rise in business taxes and the uncertain global backdrop is felt. Only a small part of the fall in GDP in January …
14th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households still in the mood to save rather than spend The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to …
3rd March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to businesses cutting employment to cope with higher taxes. The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways …
21st February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bad news continues for the Chancellor While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Supermarkets win, restaurants lose The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Climb in inflation to 3% will be uncomfortable for the BoE CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak employment, but wage growth still too high for BoE’s liking While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher taxes and weaker global demand hold the economy back The 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q4 (consensus, CE and BoE forecasts all -0.1%) leaves the economy all-but stagnating …
13th February 2025
For updated and more detail analysis see here . Dovish development adds downside risk to our forecast for Bank Rate to fall to 3.50% While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25bps cut in seven months, the Bank of …
6th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Downbeat outlook isn’t heavily weighing on households’ financial decisions December’s money and lending figures suggest the downbeat economic outlook isn’t weighing on households …
30th January 2025
