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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Mar) …
25th April 2008
Japanese consumer confidence remains near five-year lows despite a slight pick-up last month. Nonetheless, spending is holding up well. The single biggest negative for confidence is the perception that inflation is soaring (another reason why the next …
18th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate cut speculation is on very shaky ground …
2nd April 2008
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions in manufacturing was slightly weaker than the median forecasts, but the risks were always on the downside and the actual results are still something of a relief. The detail included some reassuring …
1st April 2008
Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages are finally picking up. … Japanese output falls, wages …
31st March 2008
Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances that underlying inflation will pick up later in the year …
28th March 2008
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for March, due next Tuesday (1st April), will almost certainly show that business conditions have deteriorated. However, the markets are already prepared for a sharp decline and the outturn may well prove to …
25th March 2008
Most discussion of the outlook for Japan in 2008 assumes that the two alternatives are a sharp slowdown or an outright recession. However, much of the incoming data actually favours a third scenario: another year of decent growth at or above the economy’s …
24th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q4 Revised) …
12th March 2008
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the government’s preferred candidate Toshiro Muto will still be …
7th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2008 is not a rerun of 2001, at least for the BoJ …
3rd March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Industrial Output, Retail Sales (Jan) …
28th February 2008
The surge in GDP at the end of 2007 supports our non-consensus view that, rather than heading for recession, Japan will be the only major economy to grow at least as quickly this year as last. It should also dampen speculation that the next move in …
14th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Next move in Japanese rates is still a hike …
11th February 2008
The latest housing starts data should (but perhaps won’t) quieten talk that Japan is heading into recession. Indeed, we are increasingly confident that a sustained recovery in the construction sector could add half a percentage point or more to GDP growth …
31st January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Industrial Output (Dec) …
30th January 2008
The surprise jump in household spending in December suggests that it is too soon to write-off the Japanese consumer. The labour market is also holding up rather better than many had expected and almost certainly better than the fall in job vacancies …
29th January 2008
Japan is not currently in recession as commonly defined (that is, two quarters of negative growth, or a year-on-year decline). But the level of GDP failed to recover fully in the third quarter of last year from the decline in the second, while domestic …
24th January 2008
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold after its regular meeting today, as was universally expected. The main interest therefore lies in the Bank’s latest assessment of the economy and in Governor Fukui’s tone during his press conference: both were probably …
22nd January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the next move in Japanese rates a cut? …
17th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan on alert as inflation pressures build …
17th December 2007
The latest monthly data have mostly been disappointing, confirming that the Bank of Japan will have to tread very carefully if it wants to continue returning interest rates towards more normal levels. Larger companies are still benefitting from bouyant …
24th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold until at least November …
13th September 2007
For the first time in a long while it is possible to build a reasonable case for worrying about the Japanese economy: our monthly review of the latest data finds causes for concern among both households and businesses. Consumers say they are less …
24th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … August rate hike still on the agenda …
16th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fukui to prepare ground for August hike …
5th July 2007
The upwardly-revised Q1 GDP data have set a solid base for the year. We expect growth of around 2.6% in 2007 as a whole, comfortably above the latest consensus of 2.2%. The slump in the index of leading indicators is a concern, but there is no such …
24th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … August rate hike likely, but markets still complacent …
11th June 2007
The slightly disappointing GDP data for the first quarter still mark a good start for the year. In particular, the household sector made another large positive contribution. Investment was the soft spot: high levels of capacity utilisation suggest that …
24th May 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP data should support hawks at BoJ …
10th May 2007
The weakness of the latest CPI and activity data, combined with cautious growth and inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan, has prompted us to tweak our rate forecasts down slightly. We now expect the Bank to wait until August before hiking rates …
27th April 2007
The outlook for the Japanese economy is less clear than it has been for a while. Growth in the industrial sector is certainly slowing, albeit from a relatively high level. Weak manufacturing orders and rises in stocks of unsold producer goods are among …
24th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New forecasts should support further rate hikes, eventually …
19th April 2007
Many commentators are starting to raise concerns about the index of leading indicators in Japan. At face value the latest reading is signalling a recession by the second half of the year, or at least a marked slowdown. However, a closer look at the key …
18th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US downturn to keep BoJ on hold a while longer …
3rd April 2007
The early data for January and February suggest that consumer spending has retained much of its positive momentum from the fourth quarter of last year, but industrial growth has peaked. The strong global economy, rather than the weakness of the yen, has …
24th March 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Diminishing spare capacity points to higher rates …
15th March 2007
G7 officials have always argued that exchange rates need to reflect underlying economic fundamentals. The value of the yen is doing just that. The main reason for the recent weakness has been the disappointing economic data from Japan, which contrasts …
24th February 2007
Most commentators have been quick to dismiss the significance of today’s increase in Japanese interest rates, taking their cue from the apparently dovish statement accompanying the announcement. However, we think this interpretation is too simplistic and …
21st February 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … February rate hike is more likely than not …
15th February 2007
Consumption is rebounding from the weather-related weakness in Q3, but wage growth and price inflation remain subdued. So far, employees appear to have been willing to sacrifice higher pay for greater job security. However, the improvement in employment …
24th January 2007
Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees willing to sacrifice higher pay for greater job …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise further in 2007 than the markets expect …
11th January 2007
The majority of the monthly data released ahead of the crucial Tankan survey (to be published this Friday) has been upbeat. In particular, household spending has begun to recover from the slump in Q3. Wage growth remains disappointing, but the continued …
24th December 2006
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Xmas rate rise would be more Santa than Scrooge …
14th December 2006
The omens for third quarter GDP (to be released on 14th November) are not good. Consumer spending probably fell outright, due to a combination of bad weather and sluggish growth in real wages. However, the evidence from business and consumer surveys is …
24th November 2006
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate decision hinges on GDP data …
8th November 2006
This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide ample justification for another rate rise soon, perhaps …
31st October 2006
Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index for large manufacturers (which unexpectedly rose to +24 …
2nd October 2006
The recent deterioration in market sentiment towards the Japanese economy is largely unjustified. The jury is still out on the consumer sector following a string of weak numbers, but we suspect that these have been distorted by measurement problems and …
24th September 2006
