The Japanese economy is clearly slowing. Indeed, the official data suggest that consumer spending has fallen sharply and manufacturing may already be in a (short-lived) technical recession. Nonetheless, the flying start to the year means that GDP is still likely to grow by around 2.0% in 2008, the same rate as in 2007. The Tankan is the single most reliable survey indicator of the overall health of the economy and remains well above recession territory.
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