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Higher-than-expected wholesale price inflation in India has raised some doubts about whether policy easing is imminent. However, a closer look at today’s data shows that core inflation has dropped to one of the lowest rates in years. We continue to expect …
14th March 2013
Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect the key policy rate to be cut in a week’s time. … …
12th March 2013
Indonesia continues to be among the best performers in Asia. However, rising inflation, a weakening currency, and haphazard policymaking have become growing concerns. This Weekly takes a closer look at these issues and assesses the implications for …
11th March 2013
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) held its overnight rate at 3.0% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Despite a pick-up in GDP growth, there is little pressure on BNM to hike rates in 2013. … Malaysia under little pressure to hike …
7th March 2013
Australia’s economy retained good momentum in Q4, despite a downturn in private investment. The outlook for the next two years hinges on the strength of non-mining sectors as the mining boom cools. We expect policy loosening to cushion, but not prevent, …
6th March 2013
Weak global trade held back growth across most of Asia last year. But strong domestic demand helped much of South East Asia outperform. Not only did Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia grow faster than others in Asia, they also comfortably …
4th March 2013
The February PMIs for emerging Asia were weak, with little sign of upward momentum across the region. Despite policy easing at home, the uncertain outlook for the developed world means Asia’s industrial sector faces a bumpy ride over the coming year. … …
1st March 2013
Today’s budget statement reveals that India’s central government has been able to lower its fiscal deficit from 5.7% of GDP a year ago to 5.2% in the current fiscal year. It appears determined to go further in the coming year, but the going will get …
28th February 2013
Economic activity across emerging Asia is showing further signs of recovery. Growth has been strongest in South East Asia, where domestic demand has continued to shrug off the impact of weak exports. Inflation in most countries is relatively low, and is …
Today’s FY 2013 budget focused on raising medium-term growth by boosting productivity. The government resisted short-term pump priming but, with unemployment low and a number of today’s measures likely to raise firms’ costs, inflation remains a threat. …
25th February 2013
Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy credibility. … India's budget: A test of policy …
Singapore’s new official population forecasts have created a stir among an electorate worried about overcrowding and heavy immigration. But from an economic point of view, the biggest takeaway is that even on these forecasts population growth is set to …
21st February 2013
Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their output, but it will also add to the stockpiles of …
20th February 2013
Thailand’s Q4 GDP data suggest that the economy ended last year on a strong note, which lessens the urgency for policy settings to be loosened. However, we expect the economy to slow later this year and prompt renewed rate cuts by end-2013. … Thailand's …
18th February 2013
Having trended lower since the 2008-2009 global crisis, Emerging Asia’s government bond yields have risen so far this year. In this Weekly , we examine the reasons for the pick-up and the outlook for yields over the rest of this year. … What lies ahead …
Wholesale price inflation in India fell more than expected in January, to 6.6%. But with consumer price inflation rising to 10.8% and the current account deficit heading for a record high this year, the central bank is unlikely to rush to ease rates …
14th February 2013
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation will remain low. The upshot is that we expect the BoK …
While the State Bank of Pakistan may wish to cut rates further to stimulate the economy, there is a growing risk that the central bank will be forced into tightening policy instead. … Pakistan's central bank is in a …
13th February 2013
Property prices look significantly overvalued in Hong Kong and parts of Taiwan. As such, while the risk of a slump in exports bringing recession in these trade-oriented economies has subsided recently, threats from closer to home still loom large. … …
11th February 2013
Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q4, with the pace of growth down only slightly from the previous quarter. Although weak global demand will remain a drag on the economy in 2013-14, domestic demand should remain strong. We expect …
5th February 2013
The yen has significantly weakened against Asian currencies in the last few months. Given the similarity of many of their exports, Korean exporters look most vulnerable to a depreciating yen. However, as this Weekly explains, the negative impact of yen …
4th February 2013
The January PMIs for emerging Asia were disappointing. Improving global sentiment should provide a small boost to Asian industry in coming months, but conditions overall are likely to remain weak. … January PMIs suggest industry …
1st February 2013
GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q4, with the pace of expansion slowing only slightly from the previous quarter. Although we remain upbeat about medium-term prospects, growth is likely to slow in 2013 as favourable base effects wear off. …
31st January 2013
Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy ended 2012 on a strong note. But Taiwan remains vulnerable to a renewed deterioration in global sentiment, which we think is likely this year. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2013 still look optimistic …
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) met expectations that it would cut its key policy rate today. However, the accompanying policy statement suggests there may be only limited further policy loosening over the balance of the year. Our forecast is for just one …
29th January 2013
Despite a similarly strong economic performance last year, the currencies of Indonesia and the Philippines have gone in opposite directions, with the peso significantly outperforming the rupiah. In this Weekly we outline the reasons for this divergence …
28th January 2013
Emerging Asia’s GDP growth looks to have rebounded in the final quarter of last year, led by strength in South East Asia. Meanwhile, inflation remains comfortably low for policymakers in most countries. An improvement in global risk appetite has helped …
25th January 2013
Korea’s Q4 GDP data show that the economy ended 2012 on a weak note. We think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon, while inflation looks set to remain low. Accordingly, we maintain our non-consensus view that Korea’s policy rate will be …
24th January 2013
Exports from Vietnam grew strongly last year in what was a rare bright spot for the country’s troubled economy. In this Weekly we look at how Vietnam has managed to buck the regional trend and outline why this outperformance is likely to continue in 2013. …
21st January 2013
Asian growth looks to have picked up late last year and is likely to fare well in the near term. However, growth in 2013-14 is unlikely to be strong due to lacklustre external demand and structural weaknesses in Asia’s major economies. Policy rates in …
17th January 2013
India’s growth rate, rather than rebounding as many hoped, may be stabilising at a low level. But the latest fall in underlying inflation does at least provide a green light for the central bank to cut rates. … Latest data support case for rate cut in …
14th January 2013
We expect growth in the developed world to be sluggish in 2013, which suggests that Asia’s exports are unlikely to be strong. But the downside will be mitigated by Asia’s exports increasingly going to other emerging regions, where growth prospects are …
11th January 2013
Indonesia has seen a dramatic improvement in its economic performance over the past decade, thanks mainly to rapid investment growth. The government is trying to raise the economy’s potential growth rate to 8% from around 6-6.5% at present. Achieving this …
7th January 2013
In this first Weekly of 2013, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and the region’s economies. … Elections in 2013 – what they mean for …
2nd January 2013
The December PMIs showed further signs of improvement for Asia’s manufacturers. However, conditions overall remain weak. An improvement in global sentiment should give a boost to manufacturing sectors in most countries in the coming months but a strong …
Emerging Asia will remain a bright spot in the global economy in 2013. Weak external demand from the developed world will hamper Asia’s exports, but subdued inflation will provide room for more policy rate cuts to support domestic demand. Within the …
24th December 2012
New Zealand’s economy grew at a very slow pace in Q3. Reconstruction spending should lend some support next year, but a robust pick-up is unlikely. … New Zealand still waiting on reconstruction …
20th December 2012
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate at 1.875% today, as was widely expected. The economy’s dependence on export-led growth means that the state of external demand will remain the key consideration for local policymakers. Given our downbeat …
19th December 2012
GDP growth in Sri Lanka weakened in the third quarter to its slowest pace in three years. However, the economy is likely to pick up slightly in 2013 as a result of looser monetary policy. … GDP growth to regain momentum in Sri …
Data for the past couple of months suggest that GDP growth has picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, growth still remains weak by historical standards. Subdued global demand will continue to weigh on Asia next year, with most countries …
The Reserve Bank of India had already flagged that it was likely to leave rates unchanged today, at 8.0%. Of more interest was the accompanying statement which points to a rate cut in early 2013 and raises the prospect of interest rates being cut further …
18th December 2012
The nightmare scenario of the US Congress failing to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff would see growth in Asia’s most trade-dependent countries slow by up to 1 percentage point in 2013. … The US fiscal cliff: implications for …
17th December 2012
A presidential election will take place in Korea on Wednesday. Despite the political differences between the two frontrunners, their economic policies have much in common. As such, we think the election result will matter relatively little for the …
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 50bp to 9.5% today. We think monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in a bid to revive private sector credit growth, although rate cuts in 2013 are unlikely to be as aggressive as this …
14th December 2012
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation will remain low. Accordingly, we expect the BoK to cut …
13th December 2012
A combination of rapid economic growth and low bond yields has resulted in a gradual decline in India’s public debt ratio since 2003. But the debt ratio will rise again in the coming years if the government does not take steps to raise the growth rate and …
We believe today’s unexpected rate cut by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is premature in light of the large external problems still facing the economy. Given the CBSL’s current dovish stance, we expect further rate cuts next year. However, the large …
12th December 2012
Vietnam’s central bank has been the most aggressive rate-cutter in Asia this year, slashing its policy rate by a cumulative 500bp to 10%. Although inflation has picked up in recent months, we think price pressures are unlikely to become a major concern …
10th December 2012
