Data for the past couple of months suggest that GDP growth has picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, growth still remains weak by historical standards. Subdued global demand will continue to weigh on Asia next year, with most countries likely to record another year of below-trend growth. A combination of weak economic growth and falling global commodity prices should keep inflation low in 2013, opening the door to further rate cuts. Currencies and equity markets have generally strengthened over the past month. However, both currencies and equities are likely to fall next year if global risk aversion returns, as we expect.
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