Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows in the event of a Grexit . On the contrary, we think it …
5th June 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the sell-off in Bunds continue? …
4th June 2015
Although the yields of German Bunds have risen significantly since late-April, we doubt they will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows in the event of a Grexit . On the contrary, we think …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A “Goldilocks” scenario for oil prices? …
3rd June 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What explains the renewed calm in the Treasury market? …
2nd June 2015
A tenet of the bear case for US equities is that the aggregate profit margin of the US corporate sector is extremely high and that it will inevitably revert to its long-run average, thereby derailing the stock market. This Focus questions the validity …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the likely fallout from Greece’s negotiations? …
1st June 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … When will profit margins come under pressure? …
29th May 2015
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira and South African rand are the most overvalued emerging …
28th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where next for China’s stock markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US dollar consistent with relatively strong US economy …
27th May 2015
Diverging prospects for economic growth and monetary policy point to additional gains for the dollar this year, especially against the euro and the yen. The real possibility that Greece will be the first country to leave the single currency is the …
Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. In aggregate, it looks as if such purchases will be much …
26th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the spread of Spain’s sovereign debt remain so low? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of banks’ waning demand for Treasuries …
22nd May 2015
The yen’s tentative break of 120 against the dollar in the past week has refocused attention on the currency pair after several months of stability. We continue to expect the yen to weaken substantially over the coming years. Admittedly, the Japanese …
On several metrics, the yen appears to be the most undervalued major developed market currency: on a purchasing power parity basis and when its real effective exchange rate (REER) is compared to both its 10-year average and 10-year trend. However, when …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How would the S&P react to higher US rates? …
21st May 2015
Despite a recent rebound, low oil prices are posing a challenge for many frontier markets. Low oilprices were one factor that led the IMF to cut its 2015 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, andwe believe that the Fund is still overly optimistic. …
20th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Currency misalignment – where and how much? …
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira, New Zealand dollar and South African …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Continued euro weakness on the horizon …
19th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed tightening likely to undermine Treasuries …
18th May 2015
Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We think these spreads will remain low even if Treasury …
15th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much of a threat is tighter Fed policy to US corporate bonds? …
We are sceptical that a further sell-off in Treasuries would drive the US stock market down, as some are suggesting. Although we forecast that the 10-year US government bond yield will continue to climb, our expectation is that the S&P 500 will edge up, …
14th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable are US equities to developments in bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bond market sell-off needs to be seen in perspective …
13th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury sell-off is unlikely to turn into a rout …
12th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is China’s stock market defying economic logic? …
11th May 2015
Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue, and expect the DAX to rise again before year end. … …
8th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Respite for US Treasuries is only likely to be temporary …
While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. … What next for US and euro-zone government …
Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly been reduced, even if they have not been entirely …
We forecast that US Treasury yields will increase further as the FOMC raises the federal funds rate more rapidly than policymakers, investors and the consensus of economists envisage. By contrast, we expect the yields of governments bonds in many other …
7th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in oil price likely to run out of steam …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling still vulnerable to political risks …
6th May 2015
The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review the main issues for international investors. … Four …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will German bunds and stocks move in lockstep? …
5th May 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on UK election and US payrolls …
1st May 2015
We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. … Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie …
30th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields are likely to grind higher …
The Chinese stock market has recently been on a tear. As a result, its valuation has become stretched, leaving it vulnerable to a severe correction at some point down the road. Admittedly, at roughly 22, the price/12m trailing earnings ratio of the …
29th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan could be about to spring a surprise …
Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. In aggregate, it looks as if such purchases will be …
28th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US dollar set to resume its climb? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three macro risks to the recovery in commodity prices …
27th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More stimulus from the BoJ could give the Nikkei a further lift …
24th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for monetary policy should still underpin the US dollar …
23rd April 2015
Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare occurrence in recent years. Nonetheless, we would not be …
22nd April 2015
