Some see tighter monetary policy as the biggest threat to the US stock market. But its onset did not have a major effect during the last three major Fed tightening cycles. What’s more, the fact that the cyclically-adjusted earnings yield is higher today than the yield of 10-year Treasuries – unlike at the outset of these three tightening cycles – suggests the latter could increase in response to tighter monetary policy without making the prospective return on equities appear unreasonably low.
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