Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for Bunds? …
15th April 2016
We think the yield of 10-year Bunds is unlikely to follow that of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in turning negative, despite the fact that it came within a whisker of its historical low at the start of this week. Instead, we forecast it to rise as a …
The further recovery in commodity prices over the past month has given financial markets in the emerging world another leg up. We doubt that commodity prices will rise much further, but with clearer signs that China’s economy is on the mend the rally in …
14th April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling remains vulnerable …
The US dollar has slid against other major currencies since its peak on 20th January. This has been due to higher commodity prices, greater appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of expectations for tighter Fed policy. Nonetheless, we still expect …
13th April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for oil prices? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Brazil continue to outperform? …
12th April 2016
Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of expectations for tighter Fed policy. Yet we still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the dollar’s slide? …
11th April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen may still be under-valued, but it surely needs to be …
8th April 2016
The recent weakness of the US dollar against the euro and especially the yen has already led many to tear up their currency forecasts for the year. However, expectations for US monetary policy still seem to be the key driver of the euro exchange rate. We …
An increase in the price of oil in the past day or two has helped at least some equity markets in the emerging world to snap their poor start to the second quarter. We doubt that oil prices will climb significantly in the near term. But with the incoming …
7th April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for monetary policy still point to rebound in dollar …
The appreciation of China’s currency against the US dollar this year, while small, has confounded market fears of a substantial devaluation . Nonetheless, even if the PBOC continues to target broad stability on a trade-weighted basis, this would still be …
6th April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to sound the all clear on the renminbi? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the rebound in the yen? …
5th April 2016
April may prove to be a crunch month for our view that renewed currency weakness will allow Japanese equities to outperform again. If the yen fails to drop back in response to further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan, the Nikkei is likely to remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to give up on a Doha deal to cap oil output …
4th April 2016
The strong performance of emerging market (EM) equities in recent months has left their valuations high according to some measures, such as the price/12month forward earnings ratio. But we do not believe that this marks the end of the rally in EM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets start Q2 on a sour note …
1st April 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brexit fears still weighing on sterling, despite recent gains …
31st March 2016
Despite the dovish spin put on Janet Yellen’s latest remarks, global markets will probably still have to contend with more Fed tightening this year. However, the prices of many commodities, including gold, should at least benefit from rising inflation …
30th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodities may be only lasting winners from Yellen's dovishness …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reassessment of US rate outlook should drag euro back down …
29th March 2016
Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech later today will, of course, be keenly watched for hints on the outlook for US interest rates. However, there have already been signs that the markets are reassessing their initially (very) dovish interpretation of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shanghai Discord …
24th March 2016
A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early January, the MSCI Frontier Markets Index has risen by …
Loose monetary policy increases the appeal of “risky” assets. This is a positive thing when their valuations are low, as they were in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It is, however, a potentially dangerous thing when their valuations are high. The …
23rd March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should we be worried about bubbles? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the recovery in industrial commodity prices be sustained? …
22nd March 2016
We have revised up our forecasts for the S&P 500 slightly and now project that it will make more headway after recouping all the ground that it lost earlier this year. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the index to power ahead given the advanced stage of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Taking stock of the rebound in the S&P 500 …
21st March 2016
The gap between the nominal yield of 10-year conventional US Treasuries and the real yield of 10-year US TIPS has rebounded over the past month. This increase in inflation compensation could conceivably reflect other factors as well as higher expected …
18th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the G20 trying to steer the dollar lower? …
Speculation that G20 officials came to a tacit deal in Shanghai last month to end the “currency wars” that have boosted the US dollar fits a few of the facts, but overall makes no sense. Neither the Bank of Japan nor the ECB can be happy with the …
FOMC participants’ revisions to their projections for the federal funds rate have boosted Treasuries. But there are three key reasons why we think the rally will be more than reversed in due course. … Post-FOMC rally in Treasuries is likely to be …
17th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Boost to Treasuries from Fed “dovishness” unlikely to last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the US Treasury market telling the Fed? …
16th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … One eye on the Fed, another on the PBOC …
15th March 2016
The March FOMC meeting is likely to conclude tomorrow with US interest rates left on hold but clear signals that hikes will resume soon. However, the timing will remain dependent both on future US economic data and on global sentiment. For the latter at …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the 10-year JGB yield become much more negative? …
14th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a strong dollar continue to weigh on the US stock market? …
11th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Look to the Fed, not the ECB, to drive the euro a lot lower …
10th March 2016
Since 20th January, the US dollar has depreciated against the vast majority of the currencies in the Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index. As a result, its value on that measure has fallen by more than 3%. Still, we doubt this poor performance sets the …
9th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the ECB meet expectations? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … On the recoveries in industrial commodities: better early than never? …
8th March 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What are the risks of another snap sell-off in German Bunds? …
7th March 2016
Brazil’s economy is under the cosh, but the 30% rebound in the Bovespa since mid-January has made it one of the top performing equity markets in the emerging world. While we doubt that the stock market will continue to deliver blockbuster returns, we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of February’s US Employment Report? …
4th March 2016
The real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have fallen since the US stock market hit a trough on 11 th February. The likely explanation is that investors have become more worried about the prospects for inflation in light of the …
3rd March 2016
