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Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor regardless. … What the crisis in Turkey means for EM …
13th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM currencies poor regardless of Turkey’s crisis …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chaos in Turkey another headwind for EMs and the euro …
10th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lira and ruble far from the only vulnerable EM currencies …
9th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Calm in the US stock market not likely to last …
8th August 2018
Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in particular still appear very low by past standards. We …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slide in the renminbi may not go much further …
7th August 2018
While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we would expect sterling to fall a lot further, but UK …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of a no-deal Brexit continue to weigh on sterling …
6th August 2018
The Italian Treasury’s latest debt buyback has helped to contain a rise in yields related to concerns over Budget plans. But such operations can offer only temporary respite. We see the Italian 10-year yield rising to 3.5% by year-end, even assuming that …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar strength likely to last into next year …
3rd August 2018
Equities in China and other parts of Emerging Asia have slumped since mid-June. But unusually, those in Latin America have surged at the same time. There are already signs that the rally in Latin America equities is faltering, though, and we expect them …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy to support sterling despite post-rate-hike dip …
2nd August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Near-term pick-up in Treasury yields may prove fleeting …
1st August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US IT sector not likely to stay out of the firing line for long …
31st July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BoJ’s influence on global bond markets still small …
30th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Healthy US economy should support the dollar until next year …
27th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market relief from trade tensions not likely to last …
26th July 2018
Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely, President Trump carries out his threat to impose …
25th July 2018
Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities in Pakistan and Tunisia to allow their currencies to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lat Am equities shrug off China worries, but still vulnerable …
The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with longer-dated ones. But this is a tool that it could deploy …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s government bond yields likely to fall despite fiscal boost …
24th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen likely to strengthen again even if BoJ keeps policy ultra-loose …
23rd July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Latest Trump tariff threats compound rising risks to equities …
20th July 2018
Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist measures than it has threatened so far. Even if this does not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tighter Fed policy a growing threat to the US stock market …
19th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Distorted US yield curve still a warning sign for the economy …
18th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices likely to fall further, keeping the heat on equity markets …
17th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s economy a threat to EM equities even if trade fears fade …
16th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US stock market and dollar unlikely to remain bedfellows …
13th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peak in Treasury yields probably not a long way off …
12th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Next step in trade war likely to hit S&P 500 much harder …
11th July 2018
We argued at the start of this year that the good times for emerging market (EM) assets were likely to come to an end after a stellar 2017. As it happens, in many cases they have already fallen further than we had thought they would over the year as a …
The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on Friday. Nonetheless, this hasn’t altered the view in the …
10th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling stabilises; investors still counting on a “soft” Brexit …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brexit resignations could heap more pressure on sterling …
9th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in Treasuries is unlikely to continue …
6th July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will rising trade tensions hit Emerging Asian currencies hardest? …
5th July 2018
Some argue that the stock market is less vulnerable in the euro-zone than in the US because its valuation is much lower. But the gap in their valuations is arguably negligible. … Euro-zone and US equity valuation: where’s the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will equities in Emerging Asia remain in the firing line? …
4th July 2018
Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view further falls are likely in most cases even if fears of a …
3rd July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a deal is China for the US stock market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the dollar’s strength last? …
2nd July 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Twin rally in euro-zone equities and currency unlikely to last …
29th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spill-over from Chinese markets will probably remain contained …
28th June 2018
Emerging market dollar bonds have struggled over the past month, but those in frontier markets have typically fared much worse. Of course, risky assets in general have sold off amid fears of a global trade war. Among frontiers, spreads have ballooned in …
27th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have Treasury yields peaked? …
Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. … Four signs equity investors are worrying about …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will growing protectionism keep rattling equity markets? …
26th June 2018
