S&P 500, Treasury yields and US dollar all likely to fall

We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are anticipating. We expect equities outside the US to come under more pressure too, and anticipate that credit spreads will widen. We doubt that other factors will do much to cushion the blow. Indeed, we think that China’s economy will lose more momentum, and expect the US-China trade war to rumble on.