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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … “Dovish” Fed hike not likely to turn the tide for the S&P 500 …
19th December 2018
Although corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone have already risen a long way, we think that they will continue to increase as concerns about growth in the region intensify. … Euro-zone corporate credit spreads likely to rise …
18th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weakness of US equities unlikely to be reversed next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Making sense of the jump in the USD 3m LIBOR-OIS spread …
17th December 2018
EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly-large fall to the one that we are forecasting in …
We think that there is more upside, than downside, risk for sterling when we weigh up the potential outcomes that could result from the chaos surrounding the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU. … Weighing up the Brexit risks for …
14th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM equities unlikely to turn the corner soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Loose monetary policy shouldn’t hold European currencies back …
13th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation prospects suggest that Treasuries will continue rallying …
12th December 2018
Although the S&P 500 has already fallen by roughly 10% since early October, we don’t expect it to rebound in 2019. Given the outlook for the US economy, we think that it will end next year even lower. … Don’t bank on the US stock market recovering in …
The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI Global has edged up over the past month as a whole, despite a slump in underlying Treasury yields. We expect this pattern to be repeated next year. … EM dollar bond yields likely to rise even …
11th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further fall in Treasury yields unlikely to shore up EM currencies …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s slump won’t necessarily deepen …
10th December 2018
In contrast to their relatively strong performance over the last decade, we expect financials in the US to fare worse in general than their counterparts in the euro-zone and the UK next year. … US financials unlikely to keep outperforming in …
Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect earnings growth to slow markedly in 2019. … Why earnings are …
We think that this week’s turbulence provides a reasonable guide to the trends to watch for in markets next year. In particular, while both the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields have started to drop a little sooner than we had previously anticipated, we …
7th December 2018
While 2018 has been a very difficult year for “long-only” investors to make money from anything , 2019 may be a bit less challenging. Our view is that US government bonds will offer some reward next year. … In search of a return … from …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed still on track for a December rate hike …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Flattening yield curve a worry, despite possible distortions …
6th December 2018
Worries about the prospects for the US economy have contributed to the ongoing flattening of the US Treasury yield curve and the sell-off in the S&P 500. We think that both those trends will continue in 2019, as growth there does indeed slow sharply. … …
5th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US financials likely to remain under pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inverted yield curve a warning sign for the S&P 500 …
4th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hit to the dollar from trade optimism likely to fade …
3rd December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bund yields likely to rebound, even if Treasury yields fall further …
30th November 2018
Frontier market dollar debt markets have been rattled in recent months. Part of this is due to the fall in oil prices, which helps to explain the widening of spreads in Venezuela and Nigeria. But that’s not the whole story. Investors seem to be …
There’s an air of optimism in markets about the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, where trade will be top of the agenda. An agreement between the two leaders might temporarily ease tensions. But it would be highly unlikely …
29th November 2018
While doubts have been raised over whether the Japanese yen remains a safe haven in light of its poor performance in the summer, we think that the currency will retain this status for the foreseeable future. … The yen’s days as a safe haven are probably …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We still expect Treasury yields to fall even further next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outperformance of Chinese equities likely to prove fleeting …
28th November 2018
Although Italian government bonds (BTPs) are already trading like “junk”, we think that their credit spread will rise even further next year for several reasons. … Italian BTPs will probably continue to trade like …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields likely to fall much further in 2019 …
27th November 2018
The recent pick-up in US corporate credit spreads is more than just a response to the slump in oil prices over the past couple of months. We think that it also reflects worries about the outlook for the global economy, which are likely to intensify next …
26th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for EM equities poor, but not because of oil prices …
While the 10% drop in the S&P 500 since early October can be partly blamed on plunging oil prices and concerns about global demand, it also seems to reflect justified fears about the US economic outlook. … What the S&P’s slump tells us about the US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Any relief from a possible Trump-Xi deal is unlikely to last long …
23rd November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More broad-based EM currency weakness on the cards …
22nd November 2018
We think that the performance of UK financial assets would be varied in the event of a no deal Brexit, which has become increasing likely given the recent political chaos in Westminster. … No deal Brexit would be a mixed bag for UK …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cyclical stocks will probably keep living up to their name …
21st November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More trouble on the way for the beleaguered IT sector …
20th November 2018
Italian government bonds are now trading like “junk”, but we think that the spread between the yields of 10-year BTPs and German Bunds will increase even more in 2019 as Italy’s problems escalate and the US economy slows. … Italy’s now-junk credit spread …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury rally is probably a sign of things to come in 2019 …
19th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A Brexit blueprint for UK equities …
16th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trying to make sense of another day of Brexit chaos …
15th November 2018
A reassessment of the prospects for interest rates will probably play a far bigger role than the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) in influencing Treasuries next year. Indeed, we expect the 10-year yield to fall back to 2.5% after the Fed stops hiking …
We think that equities in the euro-zone will be caught in the crossfire of a stock market sell-off in the US next year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to fall by 14% in 2019 and we don’t think that equities in the euro-zone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil price unlikely to be a key driver of financial assets in 2019 …
14th November 2018
Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has recovered a little in the past couple of weeks, it is still below its level a month ago, and we suspect that it will fall much further by the end of next year. … EM equities likely to remain on the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro likely to recover in 2019, despite Italy’s problems …
13th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebound in sterling still most likely next year …
12th November 2018
We expect the stock market in Japan to come under more fire in 2019, as equity prices tumble in the US; the yen strengthens; and the Trump administration continues to exert pressure on China. Our forecast is that the Nikkei 225 will end next year at …
