Conditions not conducive to a “profitless” S&P 500 rally

The S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 11% so far this year in response to a shift in Fed policy and a thawing of the US/China trade war. Nonetheless, a further rally is unlikely given the darkening outlook for the global economy, which should see corporate earnings come under pressure. On the contrary, we continue to forecast that the index will end this year at 2,300, which is roughly 18% below its level now.