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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The market fall-out from the renminbi move …
22nd June 2010
The timing of China’s decision to allow greater flexibility in the renminbi has caught many others by surprise. But those now expecting a large appreciation against the dollar, and for this to boost the global economy and ease trade tensions, will …
21st June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Resumption of renminbi appreciation likely soon …
Japan’s equity market has been languishing this year. The Nikkei 225 is down about 5% since the beginning of 2010, while the S&P 500 is broadly unchanged. We don’t expect this underperformance to last, for three reasons. … Japan’s equity market should not …
18th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What good will further disinflation do Treasuries? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s bounce likely to prove short-lived …
17th June 2010
The euro has recouped a little ground over the past week. The currency’s bounce has coincided with a tentative rally in equity markets, which probably reflects a sense of relief that the global fall-out from Europe’s fiscal crisis has not been worse. (See …
16th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors in Asia have little to fear from capital controls …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A tough UK budget still lies ahead …
15th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retail sales data cast a shadow over US recovery …
14th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shrinking corporate savings – a worry for Treasuries? …
11th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the euro-zone weathering the crisis? …
The money markets have been showing signs of strain recently, although we are still a long way from a liquidity crisis. We don’t expect tensions to escalate. Accordingly, the downward pressure on the prices of risky assets seen over the past month is …
10th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Copper price likely to come under further pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What lessons can we learn from fiscal tightening in Canada? …
9th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 fails to reassure markets …
8th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pain in Spain adds to euro’s woes …
7th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pound to rise further against the euro …
4th June 2010
Our forecast that the euro will fall to parity with the dollar next year, combined with a smaller decline in the pound from $1.47 to around $1.40, would mean a further rise in the euro-sterling exchange rate from €1.20 to around €1.40. Given the UK’s …
3rd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets overly worried about China, complacent on Japan …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Asian policy-makers should focus on inflation not on Europe …
2nd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US payrolls should have surged in May on census hiring …
1st June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tougher times ahead for US corporates …
28th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US profit growth should continue to slow …
27th May 2010
While the dividend yield of the FTSE 100 recently rose above the yield on 10-year UK gilts for the first time since last autumn (see Chart 1), we would be wary of reading too much into this particular comparison. We do think UK equities are attractive by …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global growth to disappoint in 2011 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Treasury yields fall even further? …
26th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for dollar-denominated emerging market bonds? …
25th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the rally in US Treasuries run out of steam? …
We expect S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) to increase by nearly 15% this year. While encouraging, such an outcome would come as a disappointment to many investors. According to Bloomberg, the current consensus estimate for operating earnings …
24th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we make of tension in the money markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Liquidity is important, but it is not the be all and end all …
21st May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices have further to fall …
The sharp falls in many commodity prices over the past month reflect a mix of pressures and worries, some of which are temporary but most of which are not. We continue to expect further falls by the end of the year, including a decline in oil prices to …
20th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do Europe’s troubles change the outlook for the renminbi? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The outlook for US equities remains challenging …
19th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar to reach parity against the euro by mid-2011 …
18th May 2010
We have revised up our GDP forecasts for the US and Japan. (See our latest US Economic Outlook and Japan Economics Weekly.) At the same time, we have reviewed our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are …
17th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumer recovery unlikely to set the world alight …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Regardless of QE, euro has further to fall …
14th May 2010
The experience in both Japan and the US shows that the adoption of quantitative easing by the ECB would not necessarily do lasting harm to the euro. But we still expect the currency to fall a lot further. … Would QE be so bad for the …
13th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold could soon lose its shine …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan still a crisis in waiting …
12th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A stronger economy need not mean a stronger stock market …
Gold prices have risen further than we had anticipated, but we still expect them to end the year much lower. Persistent fears over public debt and the health of the financial system in the major economies should be an ideal scenario for a safe haven asset …
11th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … European rescue package takes the heat off sterling assets …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the money markets stay calm amid the crisis? …
10th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bunds should benefit from monetary anti-freeze …
7th May 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slower productivity growth could eat into US corporate profits …
The crisis in Greece cast a shadow over equity markets in April to the benefit of US Treasuries and gold. The recovery in the major developed economies is likely to peter out before too long. This should continue to curb investors’ enthusiasm for risk …
6th May 2010
