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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China heading for a soft landing …
26th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a ceiling on Treasury yields make much difference? …
25th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro's decline likely to gather steam …
24th November 2010
The significance of the crisis in Ireland and the problems in other economies on the fringes of Europe is potentially far wider than their small size would suggest. The exposure of global financial institutions to the likes of Ireland is relatively …
23rd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Irish bailout only a partial solution to the euro's problems …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China roils global markets - and Bernanke …
22nd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks have another chance to explain themselves …
19th November 2010
We expect the Japanese yen to weaken further against the US dollar, to 90 next year and 100 in 2012 (from around 83 today), despite a steady grind higher in most other Asian currencies. In contrast to the rest of the region, Japan faces a long period of …
18th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global inflation worries overdone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to conclude the Fed’s got it wrong …
17th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pressures on Greece and Ireland continue to mount …
16th November 2010
The fact that Treasury yields have risen rather than fallen since the Fed announced the launch of QE2 is not necessarily evidence that the policy is failing, especially when the US central bank has not yet even started to buy the additional bonds. …
15th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 statement - more style over substance …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for Ireland? …
12th November 2010
The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible. A lot of this criticism appears to be muddled. If, as …
11th November 2010
US nonfarm, nonfinancial companies have enjoyed a rapid increase in their return on equity (ROE). This does not, however, imply that the stock market is attractively valued. For one thing, the absolute level of firms’ ROE is likely to fall. For another, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Food for reflection as agricultural commodities soar …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US really engaged in a “currency war”? …
10th November 2010
The near 20% rise in the euro against the US dollar over the last six months has clearly not sat comfortably with our prediction back in May that the single currency would depreciate further and drop to parity against the dollar in 2011. But the tide …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still no closer to the return of the Gold Standard ... …
9th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US G-20 current account proposals likely to fall on deaf ears …
8th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How are US asset markets likely to respond to QE2 now? …
5th November 2010
The US stock market’s lukewarm reaction to yesterday’s FOMC statement suggests the scale and timing of the Fed’s additional monetary stimulus have been largely, though not completely, discounted. We doubt the rally in equities will last much longer given …
4th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Fed about to repeat the mistake of 2003? …
The prospect of additional quantitative easing in the US boosted the prices of “risky” assets in October. Government bonds also held firm in anticipation of more buying by the Fed. The ongoing loser was the dollar, which provided a further fillip to …
3rd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising bond yields to keep pressure on euro-zone governments …
US Treasury yields should remain anchored even if the scale of additional quantitative easing (QE) disappoints. We are sceptical, however, that the rally in the US equity market will last much longer given the outlook for earnings – emerging equity …
2nd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for corporate bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More QE need not lead to further dollar weakness …
1st November 2010
The conventional view that further quantitative easing (QE) is unambiguously negative for the dollar will be tested next week both by the outcome of the Fed meeting and by the decisions of other major central banks. We still expect the US currency to …
29th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Q3 GDP growth likely to be as good as it gets …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Two downside risks to oil prices …
28th October 2010
We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them below the range of $70-80pb favoured by some OPEC members. …
27th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … QE2 still likely to set sail in the UK early next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why Japan's equities can ride out a stronger yen …
26th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy set to slow after a respectable third quarter …
25th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much help is a weaker dollar to US companies? …
22nd October 2010
The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home that compete with imports. In addition, a significant …
21st October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gilts relieved by UK government's commitment to spending cuts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PBoC takes some steam out of commodity price rally …
20th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renminbi's rise to run out of steam …
19th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US CPI figures will not ease the Fed's concerns …
18th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity (not so) super-cycle …
15th October 2010
The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We are sceptical and fear that these prices are more …
14th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for real yields? …
The yield on 5-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has tumbled to a record low of minus 0.5%. It could fall even further if the yield on 5-year conventional Treasuries continues to decline, or if inflation expectations climb. Both of …
13th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The Australian dollar looks set for further gains …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would more quantitative easing mean for Treasuries? …
12th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Soft US labour market supports case for QE2 …
11th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equity market implications of further quantitative easing …
8th October 2010
