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Choppier waters ahead

As growth slows out and fears about inflation fade, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. In the second half of 2011 we expect US Treasury yields to drop back sharply, and the US equity market to pare its gains, but emerging market assets to rebound as concerns about aggressive monetary tightening wane. Most commodity prices are likely to drop sharply this year, but the price of gold should climb again.

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