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The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and falling consumer confidence bodes ill for domestic …
29th May 2025
The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and exports to the US in Q1, this should soon fade. …
24th April 2025
The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US imports due to tariff front-running appears to have caused US …
21st March 2025
The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in advanced economies, and business survey indicators …
20th February 2025
The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to struggle in DMs, while in China it is benefiting from …
17th January 2025
The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4. Outside China, forward-looking indictors point to weaker …
12th December 2024
The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward-looking indicators point to a renewed slowdown in world …
14th November 2024
The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs outside the US seem reluctant to spend, and banks in major …
10th October 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024) …
12th September 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (August 2024) …
15th August 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) …
15th July 2024
Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight rates to some extent reflect a shift in demand towards …
10th July 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024) …
12th June 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) …
15th May 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2024) …
12th April 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) …
13th March 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
15th February 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
11th January 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform Europe. And while China’s policy-induced …
15th December 2023
While the US economy considerably outperformed its DM peers in Q3, we think that all advanced economies will suffer a weak Q4. High interest rates are weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in debt servicing costs in the coming quarters is likely …
17th November 2023
The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in debt …
13th October 2023
While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to experience mild recessions in the quarters ahead as …
14th September 2023
While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus will radically improve the outlook for China’s economy, …
14th August 2023
While the resilience in economic activity looks to have continued in May, the latest surveys point to GDP growth slowing in June. And in China, the post-reopening rebound appears to have already fizzled out. Meanwhile, the significant tightening in …
14th July 2023
While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had dropped from 8.5% late last year to below 6% in April, and …
14th June 2023
Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite PMI output index for developed economies rose from …
12th May 2023
Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial production was broadly stable and China’s zero-COVID …
13th April 2023
Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. (See Chart 1.) We have written many notes to help navigate the …
17th March 2023
A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and UK economies (narrowly) avoided outright contraction …
16th February 2023
The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which brightened the prospects for the world’s largest economy …
13th January 2023
Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%. Of course, that is still a very high rate, but there …
7th December 2022
Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather than contract as expected, but the economy managed to …
11th November 2022
The latest data suggest that the labour market strength, which has been a key feature of advanced economies this year, might be coming to an end. Admittedly, unemployment rates have generally been stable at very low levels. However, falling job vacancy …
14th October 2022
The latest data have revealed that the world’s major economies are all struggling, but for different reasons. In Europe, the energy crisis is largely behind the recent softness in consumer and industrial activity. In the US, higher interest rates are …
14th September 2022
There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as softer demand and fewer bottlenecks have opened up …
12th August 2022
Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The earliest signs for Q3 are not good, with business …
13th July 2022
Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the weakness reflects a likely slump in Russian GDP, but we …
15th June 2022
Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while increases in Australia and Japan reflected temporary rebounds …
13th May 2022
World GDP appears to have expanded at a below-trend pace in Q1 as high inflation limited real consumer spending and supply shortages and Omicron waves continued to disrupt activity. March’s broad-based drop in consumer confidence suggests that consumer …
14th April 2022
We warned at the start of the year that global growth would disappoint, while inflation would surprise to the upside in 2022 and recent events have added to those concerns. The surge in commodity prices related to the war in Ukraine means that headline …
15th March 2022
While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave took its toll. For example, virus caution and government …
11th February 2022
There were signs that supply shortages were starting to ease in some places at the tail end of 2021. World trade was its strongest since shortages began to bite a year ago and industrial production had picked up too, especially in the auto industry as …
14th January 2022
Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and falling commodity prices will drag on headline …
14th December 2021
Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy suggests that there was a large contraction there. (See …
11th November 2021
With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their evolution. While the global economy has continued to grow at …
14th October 2021
There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while the business surveys suggest that activity softened …
20th September 2021
Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently. Recoveries in retail sales, industrial output, and …
12th August 2021
Global economic activity looks to have perked up recently, despite a slowdown in China and a slightly weaker re-opening bounce in the US than most had anticipated. The hard economic data have revealed further improvements in global industrial output and …
15th July 2021
Global GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 as most parts of the world grappled with renewed waves of coronavirus. The US and Korea were among the few exceptions where recoveries accelerated. But with global infection numbers now falling, activity seems to be …
11th June 2021
