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Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the major EMs, the bounce in GDP growth that many are …
10th December 2012
Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies. … How big a threat is inflation to emerging …
7th December 2012
A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies stillsubdued and major developed markets struggling, it is …
4th December 2012
Strong domestic demand has partially offset export weakness in many emerging economies this year, particularly in Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for domestic demand look favourable in emerging Asia and parts of Latin America, but much less so in emerging …
29th November 2012
History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia and Europe are more likely to fulfil their potential over …
28th November 2012
Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is the biggest concern but a number of economies in emerging …
22nd November 2012
Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. … Which EM currencies are cheap and which are …
19th November 2012
Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed on this front, but if commodity prices fall, several …
16th November 2012
Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive signs in the October data that have been released to …
15th November 2012
The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America highlights the persistent competitiveness problems in the …
12th November 2012
There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia. Commodity exporters, by contrast, still appear to be …
8th November 2012
The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to putting the economy on a more sustainable footing would …
7th November 2012
The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller, more open economies of Asia and Emerging Europe. … …
2nd November 2012
China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find themselves ill-positioned for the next stage of China’s …
31st October 2012
We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that inflation will be slow to fall back. Meanwhile, the …
29th October 2012
Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in emerging markets and provide support to their balance …
26th October 2012
Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But both countries are reaching the limits of their …
22nd October 2012
Emerging market GDP appears to have grown by around 4.5% y/y in Q3 – broadly the same rate as in Q2, but well down on the 8% y/y growth rates seen in 2010. At a regional level, Emerging Asia has continued to outperform and, with Chinese growth showing …
18th October 2012
Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived and much smaller than that after food price shocks in …
17th October 2012
A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However, low levels of public debt mean that there is little …
16th October 2012
Emerging market exports have been hit by a broad slowdown in global demand this year, with the last few months proving especially weak. Given the bleak outlook for the global economy, a meaningful recovery looks some way off. … Emerging market exporters …
11th October 2012
Among the major emerging market (EM) regions, we estimate that Latin America has experienced the greatest loss of competitiveness over the past few years. In the medium term, weaker productivity growth and a heavy exposure to falls in commodity prices are …
10th October 2012
Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging markets will be determined in part by how much scope these …
5th October 2012
There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called “currency war”. We’re not convinced. … QE3: big risk or …
4th October 2012
The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while theeasing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. … Emerging Market manufacturers still …
2nd October 2012
We expect emerging market (EM) growth to slow to around 4.5% in 2013, with only a modest pick-up to 5.0% in 2014. This would be some way below average growth of 6.1% seen since 2000. What’s more, while part of the slowdown reflects cyclical factors …
27th September 2012
