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We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp The Reserve Bank of India may hike by another 50bp… (05.30 BST) …and clients can register for our post-RBI Drop-In here (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt it will appreciate …
7th June 2022
We expect a 25bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (02.30 BST) South Africa’s economy may have slowed in Q1 (10.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably narrowed in April (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes With UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing a …
6th June 2022
We think growth in US non-farm payrolls slowed in May but remained strong (Friday 3 rd June) We expect the RBA to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.6% (Tuesday 7 th June) ECB may give more clues on its tightening plans at its June meeting (Thursday 9 th …
1st June 2022
Euro-zone unemployment rate probably remained at a record low in April (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing survey may have softened a touch in May (15.00 BST) We expect another 50bp rate hike from Canada’s central bank (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
31st May 2022
For much of this year, expectations of tighter Fed policy have driven up Treasury yields, weighing on the US stock market’s valuation in the process. That has changed since we published our last Asset Allocation Outlook , as Treasury yields have dropped …
China’s official PMIs probably increased but remained weak in May (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation rose further in May, to just under 8% (10.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Hungary to hike its policy rate by 75bp, to 6.15% (13.00 …
30th May 2022
We suspect that US non-farm payrolls climbed by 300,000 in May (Friday) We think euro-zone headline inflation rose further in May, to just below 8% (Tuesday) China’s PMIs probably increased but remained weak this month (Tuesday & Wednesday) Key Market …
27th May 2022
Even if high inflation continues to put downward pressure on profit margins, we still suspect that the consumer staples sector in the US will be a relative bright spot against a backdrop of underwhelming growth and a renewed rise in bond yields leading to …
We suspect that Australia’s retail sales remained strong in April… (02.30 BST) …and estimate that US consumer spending grew solidly too (13.30 BST) Clients can catch up on our latest Drop-In sessions here Key Market Themes Although the first estimate of …
26th May 2022
Fed minutes likely to shed more light on quantitative tightening plans (Wed 19.00 BST) Central banks in Korea, Russia and Turkey are set to make interest rate announcements (Thu.) We will be holding Drop-Ins on inflation in EM Asia and political risk in …
25th May 2022
New Zealand’s central bank may hike its policy rate by a further 50bp (03.00 BST) We expect US durable goods orders in April to point to strong investment growth (13.30 BST) Read about our highest conviction macro calls, and their market implications here …
24th May 2022
Although Treasury yields have dropped back in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has peaked, we don’t think it makes sense to extend duration. Of course, the longer a bond’s remaining life, the greater the sensitivity of its price to a change in its …
We expect Bank Indonesia to raise its policy rate by 25bp tomorrow (08:20 BST) UK PMIs may point to a fairly sharp slowdown in activity in May (09:30 BST) Register for tomorrow’s Drop-In on euro-zone monetary policy here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
23rd May 2022
We expect rate hikes in New Zealand, Korea, Israel, Indonesia and Pakistan next week We think PMIs have fallen further this month in the euro-zone and the UK (Tue.) FOMC minutes may reveal more details on discussions around quantitative tightening (Wed.) …
20th May 2022
So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a destabilising cycle of panic selling and money market distress …
We expect a 5bp cut to the Loan Prime Rate in China (02.15 BST) Clients can view the on-demand replay of our Drop-In on the latest sell-off in equities here … … and register for a Drop-In on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone here Key Market …
19th May 2022
Headline CPI inflation in Japan probably rose above 2% in April (23.30 BST) We expect interest rate hikes in South Africa, the Philippines, and Egypt Clients can sign up for tomorrow’s Drop-In on commercial property here Key Market Themes The hawkish tone …
18th May 2022
Japan’s economy probably contracted in Q1 (00.50 BST) We think UK CPI inflation increased to a 40-year high last month... (07.00 BST) ... but that it changed little on an annual basis in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The glass-half-full case for US …
17th May 2022
We expect US equity REITs to remain under pressure between now and the middle of next year, given our view of the US stock and bond markets. Nonetheless, we doubt they will underperform US equities substantially given their relative valuations – we see no …
We think US industrial production edged up in April, while retail sales grew strongly We expect UK wage growth to have accelerated further in March (07.00 BST) Clients can sign up for our Drop-In on EM sovereign debt risks here Key Market Themes China ’s …
16th May 2022
We think China’s central bank will cut its benchmark MLF rate by 5bp (Mon.) UK CPI inflation may have hit a 40-year high in April (Wed.) We expect rate hikes in South Africa, Egypt and the Philippines next week Key Market Themes History suggests the S&P …
13th May 2022
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike by 50bp (Thu., 19.00 BST) Euro-zone industrial output might have dropped sharply in March (Fri., 10.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained very low in May (Fri., 15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
12th May 2022
We think the UK economy grew by just 0.2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Mexico’s central bank expected to deliver another 50bp hike (19.00 BST) Clients can sign up for our Drop-In on China’s economy here (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes So far, at least, …
11th May 2022
China’s CPI inflation may have picked up last month (02.30 BST) We think that US CPI inflation eased in April, for the first time in eight months (13.30 BST) Clients can register for a Drop-In on our forecasts for global bonds, equities & currencies here …
10th May 2022
Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under renewed pressure until the middle of next year. Indeed, we …
Germany’s ZEW sentiment indicator probably fell further in May (10.00 BST) We think that Norway’s headline inflation dropped back a bit in April (07.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on the outlook for UK house prices here Key Market Themes …
9th May 2022
China’s trade, credit and inflation data may reveal the impact of virus disruptions We think annual CPI inflation fell in the US in April, for the first time in eight months (Wed.) Clients can register for a Drop-In on our forecasts for global bonds, …
6th May 2022
The struggles of both bonds and equities during the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle of 1994/95 may provide a warning to investors today. The Fed’s 50bp rate hike earlier this week – its first such hike in over two decades – looks set to be followed by a …
German industrial production probably fell by as much as 2% in March (07.00 BST) We think non-farm payrolls rose by a solid 375,000 in April … (13.30 BST) … and clients can register for a Drop-In on the April US payrolls numbers here (15.00 BST) Key …
5th May 2022
Fed likely to raise rates by 50bp and start quantitative tightening (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think the Norges Bank will leave its policy rate unchanged… (Thu. 09.00 BST) …and anticipate a 25bp hike from the Bank of England (Thu. 12.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
4th May 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have risen slightly in March (10.00 BST) US Federal Reserve likely to raise rates by 50bp and commence QT (19.00 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t subscribe to the view …
3rd May 2022
We think the Fed will hike by 50bp next week ... (Wed.) ... and expect rate hikes in the UK, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Czechia and Poland as well US non-farm payrolls probably continued to grow at a healthy pace in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes The …
29th April 2022
We think euro-zone core inflation edged up further in April … (10.00 BST) … and that the economy probably stagnated in Q1 (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on the Bank of Japan here (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes We wouldn’t be surprised if …
28th April 2022
While the valuation of the S&P 500 appears high in absolute terms – even after the falls in the index in 2022 so far – it seems far less stretched once the still historically low real yields of US Treasuries are considered. And it would probably take a …
The Bank of Japan may widen its 10-year JGB tolerance band to ±50bp We expect Sweden’s Riksbank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% (08.30 BST) A fall in net exports probably caused US GDP to stagnate in the first quarter (13.30 BST) Key Market …
27th April 2022
Although the fortunes of major assets have varied after high inflation in the US has peaked, we still think the historical evidence may offer clues to their relative performance in the coming years. Last summer, we examined the performances of a selection …
Rising inflation in Australia may strengthen the case for a June rate hike (02.30 BST) We think that Brazil’s inflation jumped in the first half of April (13.00 BST) Russia’s March activity data likely to point to the onset of a deep recession (17.00 BST) …
26th April 2022
We think that economic activity in Korea held up relatively well in Q1 (00.00 BST) We expect the central bank in Hungary to raise its base rate by 100bp (13.00 BST) Core durable goods orders in the US probably rebounded in March (13.30 BST) Key Market …
25th April 2022
We expect rate hikes in Sweden, Hungary, and Colombia next week We think that US GDP growth slowed in the first quarter (Thu.) Euro-zone headline inflation probably edged higher in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes Financial sector equities have sold off in …
22nd April 2022
We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market (EM) equities relative to those in developed markets (DMs) – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s – is unlikely. That partly reflects our view …
We think retail sales fell in the UK in March (09.00 BST) Euro-zone PMIs may have fallen sharply in the euro-zone in April ... (09.00 BST) ... and declined a bit in the US as well (14.45 BST) Key Market Themes Even if incumbent President Macron wins …
21st April 2022
Final HICP print should shed some more light on drivers of eurozone inflation (10.00 BST) Fed Chair Jerome Powell may strike hawkish tone at IMF discussion panel tomorrow Clients can sign up for tomorrow’s drop-in on France’s presidential election here …
20th April 2022
We expect a small cut in China’s Loan Prime Rate (02.15 BST) Canada’s inflation may have reached a fresh multi-decade high last month (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the potential consequences of France’s election here Key Market Themes Growing …
19th April 2022
Chinese activity data will reveal a sharp slowdown in March … (Mon.) … which reinforces our view that the PBOC will cut the Loan Prime Rate (Wed.) Register for our Drop-In on the key implications of the French election here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
14th April 2022
While the long-running underperformance of US value stocks relative to growth stocks seems linked in part to lower interest rates and structural weakness in the economy, much of it is hard to attribute to such macroeconomic fundamentals. This insight …
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate may have fallen to a multi-decade low in March (02.30 BST) We think the ECB will leave policy unchanged tomorrow (12.45 BST) Key Market Themes While …
13th April 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in New Zealand (03.00 BST) UK inflation probably rose even further last month (07.00 BST) Canada’s central bank may also raise rates by 50bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think US inflation peaked in …
12th April 2022
The valuations of mid- and large-cap equities in Japan have become even more attractive compared to those of their US counterparts following a further period of substantial underperformance in common-currency terms. That may bode well for their relative …
We think the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in February (07.00 BST) We forecast US CPI inflation reached a new high of 8.4% in March (13.30 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on global inflation here Key Market Themes Even if the US earnings season – …
11th April 2022
US CPI inflation looks set to have hit a new high in March, but this could be the peak (Tue.) We expect rate hikes in Canada, Korea, New Zealand and Israel next week... ... but think China’s central bank may announce an unscheduled rate cut Key Market …
8th April 2022
