Stronger data point to a more gradual pace of loosening Fed will not surprise financial markets amid election uncertainty We see the terminal rate higher under Trump than Harris With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more …
31st October 2024
Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the neutral rate and the risks of over loosening are …
Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will the sector continue to deliver? Join our Commercial Real Estate team for a special online briefing all about the …
An interest rate cut from 5.00% to 4.75% seems nailed on for November It’s less clear whether BoE will quicken the pace and cut rates in December too We think cuts will remain gradual until mid-2025, with rates eventually falling to 3.00% The Bank of …
We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest rates and property yields, the latter are likely to …
The US election next week is likely to have major ramifications for geopolitical ties, trade, and financial markets in the MENA region. (All our analysis on the impact of the US election on EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here .) Attention in …
The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on new leases are set to fall, which presents downside …
Heading for a weak third-quarter The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that the Bank will cut …
Inflation news mixed; real economy still looks good for Q4 The news on prices was mixed, with the September data showing that the core PCE deflator increased at a slightly faster 0.25% m/m (or 3.0% in 1m annualised terms) and, in part due to some modest …
Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate cut. At its last meeting in September, Norges Bank said …
The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP growth in many parts of the region looks as though it will come in below our previous expectations this year. That said, above-target inflation remains a concern, and we …
Our UK team held an online briefing shortly after the Bank’s November meeting all about the macro and policy outlook. During this 20-minute session, the team unpacked the latest Bank decision and communications, answered client questions and addressed key …
Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) …
The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down. That highlights that the road to recovery for commercial …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation rises but is still below ECB forecasts Euro-zone inflation came in a touch higher than expected in October but was still below the ECB’s projections for Q4. While …
The monetary “day job” is going to get harder We have argued in the past that, although central banks have some tools to help propel the green transition along at the margin, responsibility for tackling climate change is best left to fiscal and regulatory …
Weak external demand results in a sharp slowdown Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%). In …
Pace of expansion starts to soften The 0.8% q/q rise in Saudi GDP in Q3 is likely to be followed by further steady increases, but growth will be driven increasingly by higher oil output while there are signs that the non-oil sector is cooling off. The …
Growth rebounds in Q3, exports and investment to drive economy over coming year Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. The advance estimate of GDP …
BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025 . It came as no surprise that the Bank left its policy rate …
Bank of Japan will hike rates at December meeting The Bank of Japan retained its hawkish outlook when it kept policy unchanged at today’s meeting and we still expect a rate hike to 0.5% at its next meeting in December. It came as no surprise that the Bank …
This report was first published on 31 st October covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on 1 st November and on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on 5 th November. Economy continues to regain momentum The PMIs …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Australian consumer not out of the woods yet Although real retail sales saw a healthy pickup in Q3, there are reasons to suspect the data are overstating the momentum behind …
Consumption weakening yet again The September activity data were a mixed bag and consistent with our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. Taking industrial production first, the 1.4% m/m rise was stronger than most had anticipated (Refinitiv …
The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less monetary easing. We will be reviewing our forecast for Bank …
30th October 2024
This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore consistent with GDP growth perhaps being a bit stronger …
After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean …
Growth slowing further in Q3, but consumer spending remains strong The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% …
This is a revamped version of our quarterly Financial Risk Monitor to include commentary and analysis of our latest EM risk indicators. Currency risks ease further, regional divergence among fiscal risks Financial vulnerabilities have declined further …
Our more detailed and update analysis can be seen here . Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy As the Budget loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans, it is consistent with GDP growth perhaps being a bit stronger and interest …
Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver? Which economies and markets offer the best opportunities? And what could go wrong with …
The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance. Continued fiscal austerity will help to sustain investor …
US economy continues to outperform Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the 3.0% pace in the …
November rate cut hinges on US election The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions are …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP growth holds up in Q3, but outlook poor Euro-zone GDP growth came in stronger than expected in Q3 and the early indications are the inflation will be a little higher than …
The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease protestors or, further out, disruptions to large gas …
EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift. It is plausible that a sizeable portion of the loss …
Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in US Treasury yields and a Trump victory in next week’s US election would probably result in a further sell-off. Policymakers’ reaction would depend on how sharp the currency …
Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing growth in non-oil sectors to slow. Elsewhere, balance sheets in …
RBA to remain even-handed about inflation risks Although labour market is still tight, activity remains weak Bank should be able to start unwinding monetary restriction from Q1 The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at …
Central Europe continues to struggle The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is continuing to act as a …
Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside, growth in the euro-zone is weak and probably slowing. …
RBA still on course to cut rates in Q1 2025 Today’s CPI release suggests that underlying inflation will be within striking distance of the RBA’s 2-3% target range by year-end. That should pave the way for the Bank to begin easing policy at its meeting …
With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. First, while Trump appears to have the momentum, the election is far from a done …
29th October 2024
The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and foreign policy stance on Iran could affect oil and gas …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main driver was financial services activity which was …
Despite the sharp fall in job openings, September’s JOLTS data show a labour market normalising rather than rapidly deteriorating. With October’s payrolls gain likely to have been hampered by temporary disruptions, the Fed should feel confident to cut …
