The overall message from the Bank of England this week was decidedly dovish, raising the risk that interest rates will be cut further and faster than our forecast of a fall from 4.50% to 3.50% by early 2026. But as we unpacked in our reaction to the …
7th February 2025
Inflation expectations surge due to tariffs The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for February showed a decline in the headline index alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations, suggesting that consumers are increasingly concerned …
Hawks fly in CEE, but further rate divergence likely The communications from policymakers following central bank meetings in Poland and Czechia this week struck a hawkish tone. After leaving rates on hold , Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski focused …
Mexico dodges tariffs… for now The world was convulsed at the start of the week by President’s Trump’s tariff threats on Canada and Mexico, which were postponed for 30 days through last minute deals whereby both countries pledged to beef up border …
Due to an error in the figures mentioned in the original, we are re-sending this Canada Economics rapid response. We apologise for any inconvenience caused. Strong across the board A further strong rise in employment and tick down in the unemployment rate …
The softer 143,000 gain in payrolls in January is nothing to be concerned about following the upward revisions to payrolls in November and December, which left the three-month average gain at a near-two year high of 237,000. That strength, together with a …
Note: Join us as we discuss how Donald Trump's moves to build out his policy agenda will affect energy, soft commodities, and metals markets in a Drop-in on Thursday 13th February 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. …
Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. Donald Trump has roiled commodities markets with a slew of orders in the opening phase of his administration. …
While there is currently a lot of focus on r* at the ECB (which we wrote about earlier today ), the outlook for wage growth may prove to be more important in guiding monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker, released on Wednesday, suggests that wage …
Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these estimates. With the economy struggling and underlying price …
South Korea’s snap presidential election comes at a critical juncture. Its next leader inherits an economy grappling with faltering domestic demand, an aging population and mounting pressure from a protectionist US administration. Will the election …
29th May 2025
Markets have received a boost from news that the US and China have agreed to a significant rollback of tariffs. But how durable is this agreement – and will it mark a real turning point in bilateral trade tensions? Senior economists held a special …
12th May 2025
Five years on and the pandemic is continuing to impact real estate, influencing how we work, where we live and how we spend. But while some structural shifts are now better understood, there’s widespread uncertainty about how they are likely to develop …
9th May 2025
After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March. But the ANC and DA have been arguing about fiscal plans, and we think Mr Godongwana faces a …
7th March 2025
Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions? Could a new government usher in an era of more aggressive fiscal spending – including on defence – and structural reform? Will Germany's new …
With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this special briefing to gauge the size and scope of the global response to the …
4th April 2025
With no clear end to the fighting in sight, Russia’s war economy is under growing strain. Much tougher macro and market conditions loom following the recent period of overheating – but how bad could things get? What policy measures will be required by the …
18th June 2025
Will the Fed remain on the sidelines in the face of dovish inflation data? How will the Bank of England react to fresh signs of a stagnating economy? How much further will the ECB go in cutting rates? Our senior economists reviewed the latest monetary …
11th June 2025
We’d been warning for months about the supply risks to oil prices, so Saturday's OPEC+ decision to add 410,000 barrels per day from June wasn't surprising in that sense. Our Commodities team hosted this online briefing on where oil prices are now heading, …
25th April 2025
Our Commodities team hosted this online briefing all about the latest price action across markets. During this 20-minute session, the team addressed key issues, including: The takeaways from the latest OPEC+ meeting; Which industrial metals markets are …
23rd May 2025
A court ruling against the administration has thrown Trump’s flagship tariffs into legal uncertainty, potentially disrupting the White House’s efforts to levy duties on US trading partners and strike new trade deals. Is this just a temporary setback or a …
21st May 2025
Our EM economists hosted this special briefing all about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern European economies. The team addressed the opportunities and risks that lie ahead for this region, including: The potential for the region’s economies to …
19th May 2025
China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In this special online briefing, our senior economists answered client questions and addressed key …
9th April 2025
Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner. But how far will the RBA go to cut rates, and how could its strategy be influenced by the …
7th April 2025
Latin America’s economies have proven surprisingly resilient through the first half of the year and the region’s financial markets have been among the world’s best performers. Can this continue over the second half of 2025? Following recent awards for …
12th June 2025
Donald Trump’s turbulent tariffs rollout has rattled the global outlook – so what does it mean for emerging market risk? These economies could bear the brunt of the president’s toughest trade measures and signs are that some are already grappling with …
The US-China trade war has put ‘friendshoring’ firmly back on the agenda. US tariffs on Chinese goods remain well above 100% – and are unlikely to fall significantly – creating opportunities for some emerging market economies while also adding new layers …
29th April 2025
India’s better-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter has spurred hopes around prospects for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. How well positioned is the economy to continue outperforming in a global trade war? Is policy calibrated to …
4th June 2025
The tradition of gauging a president’s progress by their first 100 days began with FDR’s whirlwind start in 1933 – but it’s the opening stretch of Donald Trump’s second term that is proving one of the most consequential yet. From challenging norms around …
17th April 2025
Our senior economists hosted a wrap-up of the latest policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, to answer questions from the audience about how the strategy of these banks is evolving in the face of acute global uncertainty. … …
18th February 2025
What has the government done for the economy in its first year in office? And what will it do over the next four years? Ahead of Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Prime Minister, our UK economists held this special online briefing all about the outlook …
20th June 2025
We think the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on 19th June – taking the policy rate into negative territory for the first time since 2022. In this special preview of the June meeting our Europe and Markets …
The chaos over US tariffs – and the subsequent fallout in financial markets – has raised fundamental questions about the role of the US dollar within the global economy and international financial system. Our senior economists addressed this and more …
16th April 2025
Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained. Our EM team held this online briefing to discuss the work Milei still needs to do and …
6th March 2025
The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies. In this special 30-minute briefing , our economists discussed the economic and market repercussions, with a particular …
8th April 2025
How should central banks calibrate policy in a time of acute global uncertainty? It’s a challenge that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England face at their upcoming May meetings, and one that our senior economists addressed in this online briefing on …
24th April 2025
The Chancellor’s Spending Review will set out the tough choices facing the UK government as it grapples with rising spending demands against a bleak economic outlook. How will it square these competing pressures? And will the government manage to keep the …
3rd June 2025
The shift in sentiment toward Europe – from deep pessimism to renewed optimism – has been striking. Germany’s fiscal pivot, falling inflation and interest rates, and rising real incomes stand in contrast to the White House’s chaotic policy rollout, and …
14th May 2025
Asia-Pacific is heading for its weakest commercial real estate recovery on record. That’s the key takeaway from our inaugural APAC Commercial Property Outlook and the focus of a special online briefing with our real estate economics team. In this session …
Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to withdraw the US as the backstop of the continent’s security. But how much of …
20th February 2025
Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term. But could forces like shifting demographics and AI play a greater role in shaping long-term …
Senior economists from across our Macro and Markets teams hosted this special online briefing all about how economies throughout Asia, Europe and the Americas are faring in the shadow of the Trump trade agenda. During the session, they answered questions …
31st March 2025
The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs. How will heightened macro uncertainty shape the Governing Council’s decision and communications? …
Our Emerging Europe team hosted this election post mortem to unpack the Romania and Poland election results, and their implications for the economies. During this session, the team addressed key topics including: Whether, following its sizeable …
15th May 2025
Our EM economists provided their immediate response to the South Africa budget in this 20-minute online briefing. During the session, the team addressed key issues, including: How policymakers are plugging South Africa’s budget gap; How concerned …
How has China’s economy been performing under the weight of higher tariffs? Which sectors are lending most support to growth? What are its manufacturers doing to evade the higher duties? Our team of economists discussed the latest monthly refresh of our …
Rising risks to the UK economy present a challenge to the recovery in housing transactions. But will they be enough to dampen demand – and what could that mean for our above-consensus forecasts for house price growth beyond 2025? Our UK macro and property …
Consumption rebound looking shaky Growth in retail sales and wider consumer spending accelerated last quarter, buoyed by the consumer goods trade-in scheme and broader fiscal support. But this recovery appears to have stalled at the start of 2025. Both …
Fiscal restraint, monetary easing It’s been a busy week on the domestic policymaking front. The FY25/26 Union Budget contained some tax breaks aimed at boosting household consumption, but fiscal prudence was still very much the order of the day: the …
