US Consumer Prices (Dec 2025)

The weaker-than-expected 0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI in December suggested that there has been some genuine moderation in underlying inflation pressures in recent months. Nevertheless, our preliminary estimate suggests that the core PCE deflator increased by as much as 0.4% m/m, as some of the key CPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred measure did rebound after some shutdown-affected weakness over the preceding two months.