2023 will see a difficult adjustment to higher rates

Mortgage rates have probably now peaked, but they remain at a level that makes further steep falls in house prices and a slump in housing market activity inevitable this year. If anything, the hard data show that the housing market slump has already begun and more abruptly than we anticipated. As a result, we are bringing forward all the further drop in house prices we expected into 2023, which reduces our Q4 2023 forecast for prices from -8.5% y/y to -10.5% y/y.