Rise in oil prices not yet a big inflation risk

The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next year. Even if oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel, it wouldn’t change the inflation picture by much. Oil prices would need to rise to $150 per barrel to add an extra 1 percentage point to CPI inflation in 2024.

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