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Rental growth resilience won’t last

Even as the economy has slowed nominal all-property rental growth has held up relatively well. But that largely reflects the impact of high inflation, which is now falling. In any event, underlying supply and demand conditions are ultimately the more important drivers of rent. And even after an upward revision to our forecasts we still expect the economy to enter a mild recession this year. Rental growth will therefore drop from 3.8% y/y at the end of 2022 to -0.3% y/y by end-2023.

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