IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 26)

The March IPF consensus survey, conducted before the Iran conflict, forecasted all-property total returns of 7.7% p.a. over 2026-30 which, aside from a downgrade to 2026, was essentially unchanged from the December forecast round. We therefore remain more pessimistic compared to consensus, with our forecast for total returns of 7.4% p.a. brought down by our view that yields will see a slight rise from 2028. In particular we have a lower forecast for industrial returns at 7.1% p.a., compared to the consensus call of 7.8% p.a.