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GDP to shrink across H2

External demand is holding up better than we had anticipated and we now expect a renewed rise in Q2 GDP following a modest decline in Q1. But we still expect major trading partners to enter a recession in the second half of the year which should result in renewed drops in exports and GDP. Meanwhile, the government's plans to extend long-term visas to sectors facing severe labour shortages should help to lift migration over the coming years.

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