Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation will gradually fall over the coming months, reaching the RBI’s 4% target by the end of the year. As such, the central bank is likely to wait until December to begin cutting interest rates. We think that the repo rate will fall to 5.50% (from 6.50% currently) at the end of the upcoming easing cycle, which is a bit more dovish than the consensus expectation of 6.00%.
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