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The end of ultra-low rates and what it means for EMs

In our flagship report on the neutral interest rate (r*), we argued that r* in developed markets will rise and be higher than is widely assumed. (The full report can be accessed here.) For most EMs, r* is also likely to be higher (with China being a notable exception), EM public debt risks may be worse than are commonly assumed, and it’s negative for EM financial markets.

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