The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on FX conversion. Meanwhile, the EU's proposed embargo of Russia oil imports has met resistance from CEE economies and we suspect that they will continue to push for a longer transition period to give them time to move away from Russian oil. Even so, a longer transition for some CEE countries won't prevent a sharp fall in Russia oil exports this year.
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