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Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland

The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to the central bank’s target until 2025 at the earliest. Long-term bond yields have already risen sharply in recent months and we think that interest rates will need to stay high well into 2023 and 2024.

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