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Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024

GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. Next year should be a little better, but we still anticipate most countries will record another year of below-trend and below-consensus growth in 2024. Inflation is likely to be slower to fall back than we had previously anticipated, with recent jumps in food and fuel prices set to keep headline inflation above target in most countries until around the middle of next year. In response to the worsening outlook for inflation, we have pushed back the timing of when we think central banks will loosen monetary policy from late this year to the first half of 2024.

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