Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a lesser extent aluminium, stand out as the commodities in which the US still has the biggest bilateral trade deficit with China. Meanwhile, the US's sizeable bilateral surplus in soybean trade could make soybeans vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs from China.