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25bps hike, if banking situation doesn’t escalate

The concerns over the health of the global banking system and the easing in domestic inflationary pressures mean it is almost 50:50 between the Monetary Policy Committee pausing/ending its series of interest rates hikes at the meeting on Thursday 23rd March and raising rates by 25 basis points from 4.00% to 4.25%. A lot will depend on what happens in the global banking system between now and next Thursday. If the situation doesn’t deteriorate further, we think there will be a 25 basis point hike.

We’ll be discussing the outlook for rates in a 20-minute “Drop In” online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 23rd March. (Register here.)

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