The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before long. Meanwhile in New Zealand the Prime Minister has detailed which sectors can return to life when the current lockdown is eased. Those activities include construction and non-food manufacturing and account for more than 15% of the economy. Given low numbers of new cases we think restrictions will be eased soon so we have raised our forecast for GDP growth in New Zealand.
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